Monday 9 November

1. Washington takes its Iran blockade onto land, and Tehran lifts its missile cap

Washington’s squeeze on Iran has moved from the sea to the back door. Since July the US Navy has blockaded Iran’s ports on the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman; on Saturday Central Command set up Task Force Iron Gate to disrupt the movement of advanced weapons, dual-use technology and sanctioned materials across Iran’s seven land borders and the Caspian Sea, and to target what it calls illegal revenue streams. It did not say which border crossings it would focus on.

The unit is small: about 20 military and civilian staff in Tampa, Florida, working with other agencies. CENTCOM claims the sea blockade has kept more than $25bn of crude from export in recent months, a figure that could not be independently verified. Le Détroit’s reading: twenty people cannot police seven borders, but they can map the trucks, rail cars, Caspian ships and payments that cross them, the raw material of sanctions designations. Traders and logistics firms in Iran’s neighbourhood carry the exposure.

Tehran answered with threats, and more tankers hit mines. On Saturday the Revolutionary Guard said Iran’s self-imposed 2,000 km cap on missile range no longer applied: “that restriction has been lifted for us,” said its spokesman, Gen. Hossein Mohebbi. On Sunday Iranian media said tankers on a route Iran had not approved had hit mines near the Strait of Hormuz, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that Iran would “rain down hell” if US attacks resumed, and Donald Trump told CNN new strikes were “highly unlikely” if talks progress.

2. Yemen’s war hits Riyadh, and threatens the pipeline Saudi Arabia uses to avoid Hormuz

Saudi Arabia’s way around a mined Strait of Hormuz runs through Houthi range. On Sunday an energy ministry official said debris from an intercepted projectile had caused minor damage, and no injuries, at an Aramco building in Riyadh; a Reuters witness saw windows blown out across several floors of the Aramco Tower in the financial district. The coalition said it shot down three ballistic and two cruise missiles.

The Houthis claimed six operations, including on Riyadh’s airport, an oil site at Khurais and an oil pumping station at Dawadmi. Dawadmi sits on the East-West pipeline, which runs from Abqaiq near the Gulf to Yanbu on the Red Sea, beyond Hormuz, and is rated at 5m barrels a day (7m after a temporary expansion in 2019); its pumping station was attacked by drones in May 2019, and Saudi Arabia halted the line from 11 to 22 September after drone attacks, according to Kpler data cited by AFP. Le Détroit’s reading: the kingdom’s insurance against Hormuz is one line of pumping stations across the desert, and it has become a regular target. None of the weekend’s claims had been confirmed by Sunday evening.

The missiles follow “Dawn of Yemen”, a government offensive launched last month to retake Houthi-held territory including Sanaa. The UN says more than 1,600 people have been killed and almost 300,000 displaced since the 2022 ceasefire collapsed in July.

3. Malaysia’s king and his Attorney General clash over Najib’s front door

The fight over where Najib Razak sleeps is really about which of his two 1MDB-linked sentences is running. On Friday his party, Umno, paid his RM50m fine and the High Court ordered that he serve the rest of his SRC International sentence under house arrest until 23 August 2028, as the king’s conditional pardon of 18 September allows. The Attorney General’s Chambers (AGC) asked for a deferral, and Najib, 73, was back in Kajang prison within hours.

On Saturday the palace said the order was clear and that disputing it would amount to disregarding the king’s decree. The AGC says it is defying no one but wants a court to rule: if Friday’s order ended the SRC sentence, his separate 15-year 1MDB sentence, imposed in December 2025 and under appeal, may begin now, because it was set to follow the SRC term and the pardon covers only that case. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim told the Attorney General, Mohd Dusuki Mokhtar, to seek an audience with the king, to ask his forgiveness and explain the legal constraints.

Le Détroit’s reading: Anwar needs both camps. Umno has lodged police reports and its Johor youth wing wants the Attorney General to resign; the DAP’s Anthony Loke handed in his resignation as transport minister on 28 September, to take effect only when Najib sets foot at home. Whichever reading wins, a coalition partner loses. No transfer had been reported by Sunday evening (written on Sunday evening, may change).

4. The Atlantic route surges: 3,300 arrivals on El Hierro, 21 dead off Senegal

Patrols have not closed the Atlantic route to the Canary Islands; they have pushed it south and made it longer. In the first six days of November Spain’s maritime rescue service rescued 3,261 people around the islands, about a quarter of the 13,327 who arrived by sea in the first ten months of the year. El Hierro, an island of about 11,400 people, had received more than 3,300 people on some 30 boats in the first week of November, local authorities said, and its island council has declared a social emergency. Fernando Clavijo, the Canaries’ president, says the figures recall 2024, the record year, with 46,843 arrivals.

The human cost is moving with the route. On Saturday a pirogue capsized off Kebemer, on Senegal’s northern coast: at least 21 dead and one survivor, the Interior Ministry said, a provisional toll. Most boats reaching El Hierro now leave from Senegal, EFE reports, while patrols off Senegal, Mauritania and Morocco have pushed some departures as far south as The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau and Guinea. Walking Borders counted 635 deaths on the route in the first five months of 2026. Le Détroit’s reading: each patrol line moved south adds days at sea, and the risk falls on the passengers, not on the networks that sell the crossing.

5. China’s factory prices test the oil shock on Monday, after a hot US jobs report

The oil shock has turned China from the world’s exporter of deflation into a source of inflation. A year ago Chinese producer prices were falling 2.3% year on year; in September they rose 5.0%, led by coal mining (up 35.3%), oil and gas extraction (24.5%) and non-ferrous metal smelting (21.4%). October’s figures are due at 02:30 Paris time on Monday, after this edition was written; the consensus compiled by Trading Economics is 5.3% for producer prices and 0.8% for consumer prices.

Consumer prices tell a calmer story, up just 0.9% in September and held down by food, which was 1.7% cheaper than a year earlier. Le Détroit’s reading: factory-gate prices are what China’s customers end up importing, so a second month at 5% or more would carry the oil shock into the price of Chinese goods in Europe and America.

America adds pressure from the other side. US employers added 165,000 jobs in October, against about 65,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey; unemployment slipped to 4.1% and hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday. The ten-year Treasury yield ended the week at about 4.86%, and US consumer prices for October follow on Tuesday at 14:30 Paris.

6. COP31 opens in Antalya with fewer leaders and a 2.8°C world

The climate summit that opens in Antalya on Monday is the first since this year’s oil shock, and fewer leaders are coming to it. COP31 runs to 20 November, with Türkiye’s environment minister Murat Kurum as COP president and Australia’s climate minister Chris Bowen leading the negotiations. Türkiye said on 22 October that 85 leaders had confirmed; a provisional UN list has 77 heads of state or government speaking at the summit on 11 and 12 November, against 116 at COP28 in Dubai, Climate Home News reported. Among the G20, only the UK, Brazil and China are on that list besides the hosts, and China is likely to send a vice-premier.

They inherit grim arithmetic. UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report, published on 21 October, puts the world on course for about 2.8°C of warming under current policies, and 2.6 to 2.7°C if national plans are delivered in full. Holding the peak to 1.7 to 1.8°C would need emissions 45% below 2025 levels by 2035; fully delivered plans cut 11 to 15%. Le Détroit’s reading: with pledges stalled, the fights with money attached, over adaptation finance and China’s push to bring green-technology tariffs onto the agenda, will decide whether Antalya matters.

Monday and the week ahead

Chart 6

Monday 9 to Friday 13 November

Key dates. Times are Paris time (CET); New York is six hours behind

Hover or tap an event for details

Paris timeEventWhy it matters

Mon 02:30China: October consumer and producer pricesConsensus 0.8% and 5.3% (story 5)Monday 9 November, 01:30 GMTTrading Economics, accessed 8 November 2026Published after this edition was written

MonCOP31 opens in Antalya, to 20 NovemberFewer leaders, a 2.8°C outlook (story 6)UN Climate Conference COP31, 9 to 20 November 2026UN News, COP31 page

Tue 04:00China: October tradeConsensus surplus $126.5bn, after $133.53bnTuesday 10 November, 03:00 GMTTrading Economics, accessed 8 November 2026September exports rose 36.3% on a year earlier

Tue 14:30US: October consumer pricesFirst inflation test after 165,000 October jobsTuesday 10 November, 08:30 New YorkBLS release schedule

Tue to WedRussia, Ukraine and US talks due in Abu DhabiZelensky: Middle East escalation could delay themTrilateral talks, 10 and 11 NovemberSteve Witkoff on X, via Meduza, 3 November 2026Announced as “building on the progress made in Kyiv, Oslo, and St. Petersburg” (written on Sunday evening, may change)

Wed to ThuCOP31 Leaders’ SummitOpened by President Erdoğan11 and 12 NovemberUNFCCC, COP31 high-level pageWednesday 11 November is a US federal holiday: no BLS releases (BLS)

Thu 08:00UK: first estimate of third-quarter GDPWith the monthly estimate for SeptemberThursday 12 November, 07:00 LondonONS release calendar (confirmed)

Fri 14:30US: October producer pricesFactory-gate inflation, after China’s on MondayFriday 13 November, 08:30 New YorkBLS release schedule

Dates checked against the publishers’ calendars on Sunday 8 November; schedules can change.

Markets

Market note

Friday 6 November: closing levels; Brent settlement

Hover or tap a figure for details

Dow, close51,285.73-0.46%Dow: 51,285.73, down 237.37Yahoo Finance, live coverage and quotes, 6 November 2026 (close, 16:37 New York)After Thursday’s fall of 1,833 points

S&P 500, close7,376.86+0.31%S&P 500: 7,376.86, up 23.13Yahoo Finance, live coverage and quotes, 6 November 2026 (close, 16:37 New York)After Thursday’s fall of 4.36%

Nasdaq, close24,579.42+1.09%Nasdaq: 24,579.42, up 264.42Yahoo Finance, live coverage and quotes, 6 November 2026A partial rebound from Thursday’s 5.5% fall

Ten-year4.86%+2 bpTen-year Treasury: 4.859%Yahoo Finance, live coverage and quotes, 6 November 2026 (quote after the close)After 165,000 October jobs (BLS)

Brent, settle$98.32-16% on weekBrent: $98.32, up 3 cents on the dayFinanceFeeds, via Startup Fortune, 8 November 2026; Trading Economics shows the same levelFrom $117.64 a week earlier for January Brent; other counts of the weekly fall range from about 13% to 17%

WTI, Dec$90.83+0.34%WTI December futures: $90.83, up 0.31Yahoo Finance, live coverage and quotes, 6 November 2026 (quote after the close)Down nearly 13% on the week (Startup Fortune)

Gold$4,074.90-0.94%Gold: $4,074.90, down 38.60Yahoo Finance, live coverage and quotes, 6 November 2026 (quote after the close)

VIX25.64-9.0%VIX: 25.64, down 2.54Yahoo Finance, live coverage and quotes, 6 November 2026 (quote after the close)From 28.18 on Thursday

On Friday 6 November the Dow closed down 0.46% at 51,285.73, the S&P 500 up 0.31% at 7,376.86 and the Nasdaq up 1.09% at 24,579.42, after October payrolls of 165,000. Brent settled at about $98.32, roughly 16% lower on the week. Asian trading on Monday opens after this edition.