Morning Brief, Thursday 5 November

1. A Democratic wave, and a Senate seat hanging on 65 votes

Democrats did not just win Congress on Tuesday; they won it by a margin that leaves Donald Trump little room to bargain. NBC News projects about 258 House seats for Democrats (as of Wednesday evening, Paris time), against 214 before the vote; the AP had called 228 by Wednesday. In the Senate, Democrats and the two independents who sit with them hold 54 seats to 44 after flipping seven, from Texas and Ohio to Maine and both Carolinas. Two Republican seats are still being counted: in Mississippi, Scott Colom led Cindy Hyde-Smith by 65 votes with more than 95% counted (count continuing), and in Alaska Mary Peltola led Dan Sullivan by 626 votes in the state's count (count continuing), with the next scheduled tally on 10 November. Trump told Fox News on Tuesday night that "a part of it was Iran". His vice-president, JD Vance, went further on X on Wednesday: "The reason we lost is the war." Without 60 Senate votes Democrats cannot legislate alone, but from 3 January they hold the purse strings.

Chart 1

The new Congress

Seats won or projected on Wednesday 4 November; the dashed line marks half of each chamber

Hover or tap a bar segment for details

House of Representatives435 seats, NBC News projection

258 Democrats258 Democrats, projectedNBC News projection, Wednesday 4 November 2026Up from 214 before the vote; the AP had called 228 by Wednesday177 Republicans177 Republicans, projectedNBC News projection, Wednesday 4 November 2026Republicans held 218 seats before the vote, plus one independent who sat with them

218 seats for a majority

A projected Democratic majority of about 40 seats beyond the 218 line, by our arithmetic on NBC’s projection

Senate100 seats, 35 on the ballot

54 Democrats54 Democrats and independentsCalled races, Wednesday 4 November 2026 (NBC News, AP)47 before the vote, plus seven flips: Kansas, Iowa, Texas, Ohio, Maine and both Carolinas2 seats not calledAlaska and Mississippi, both held by RepublicansMississippi: Colom (D) led by 65 votes; Alaska: Peltola (D) led by 62644 Republicans44 RepublicansCalled races, Wednesday 4 November 202653 before the vote; Democrats lack the 60 votes that stop a filibuster

50 seats: the tie line

Democrats hold 54 with the two independents, short of the 60 needed to end a filibuster

Democrats (Senate: with the two independents)RepublicansNot yet called

Projections and calls as of Wednesday 4 November; final counts are not in.

2. Oil bets on peace; Tehran says nothing has changed

Oil traders read Tuesday's vote as the beginning of the end of the Iran war; Tehran read it as nothing at all. Brent settled 8.7% lower on Wednesday at $94.62 a barrel, its lowest close since 31 August, and US crude fell 8.3% to $88.12, below $90. Three things drove it: a Democratic Congress that could squeeze war funding, Trump's remark to the Financial Times that he has no immediate plans to strike Iran, and Gulf exports running at roughly three-quarters of their pre-war level. Iran's supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said in a written statement that American hostility would persist whichever party controls Washington, and a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Tuesday that the two sides remain far from a deal. Qatar has stepped up its mediation. The market is pricing a peace neither capital has agreed to, and until the new Congress sits on 3 January, Trump keeps a free hand.

Chart 2

The war premium, drained

Oil settlement prices on Tuesday 3 and Wednesday 4 November, dollars a barrel

Hover or tap a barrel for details

Brent

$103.60

Tuesday

Tuesday: $103.60, settlementSettlement of Tuesday 3 November 2026, January contractIts lowest settlement in nearly four weeks (Reuters)

$94.62

-$8.98

Wednesday

Wednesday: $94.62, down 8.7%Settlement of 4 November 2026, January contract (Reuters; EFE)Its lowest close since 31 August (Reuters)

WTI, US crude

$96.09

Tuesday

Tuesday: $96.09, settlementSettlement of Tuesday 3 November 2026Wednesday's fall of $7.97 runs from this level (Reuters)

$88.12

-$7.97

Wednesday

Wednesday: $88.12, down 8.3%Settlement of 4 November 2026 (Reuters; Yahoo Finance)Back under $90 a barrel; Brent lost more than 14% over the week (Le Private Banker)

Settlement prices; each fall is Reuters’ figure and matches the two closes. Barrels are filled on a scale of $0 to $110.

3. Wall Street toasts gridlock and cheaper oil

Investors like a divided Washington, and they like cheaper oil even more. The Dow closed up about 1,570 points, or 3%, on Wednesday, while the S&P 500 gained 1.6% and the Nasdaq 1.4%. Apple closed 5.3% higher after touching a record during the session, and Microsoft gained 6.7%; ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips lost about 5% as oil slid, and solar makers such as First Solar gained more than 4%. Bonds rallied too: the ten-year Treasury yield fell about 6 basis points to 4.89%, a day after it flirted with 5%. Gold jumped 3.3% to about $4,059 an ounce in late New York trade, and bitcoin was back above $80,000 (as of 21:26 Paris time). In London the FTSE 100 closed up 1.8%. "Gridlock might be bad for politics, but it is good for markets," said XTB's Kathleen Brooks. The rally prices an end to legislative surprises, not to presidential ones: ING's Carsten Brzeski warned that "Trump is not now a lame duck, but an angry duck".

4. Block books $764m to settle a US anti-money-laundering probe, and investors shrug

For a payments company, an anti-money-laundering probe now carries a price that investors simply absorb. Block, the owner of Cash App, expects to pay about $764 million net to resolve a Justice Department investigation, after reaching an agreement in principle in October on a deferred prosecution agreement. The department would defer for three years a charge alleging that Block failed to maintain an effective anti-money-laundering programme under the Bank Secrecy Act, and drop it if Block complies. The gross figure is about $964 million, reduced by credits for earlier regulatory settlements; in 2025 alone, 48 state regulators fined Cash App $80 million and New York's financial regulator imposed $40 million. Block disputes the basis and methodology of the department's assessment, and the deal still needs a final agreement and court approval. The sum is almost a quarter of its third-quarter gross profit of $3.24 billion. Yet its shares closed 15% higher on Wednesday, at $87.63, on results that beat forecasts.

5. Rate rises spread across Europe as oil slumps

Rate rises are spreading across Europe just as the oil shock that pushed central banks there is fading. Sweden's Riksbank lifted its policy rate to 2.00% from 1.75% on Wednesday, its first increase since September 2023, and said a further rise is likely in the coming year if its outlook holds. On Thursday at 13:00 Paris time the Bank of England is expected to follow with a quarter-point rise to 4.00%, its first in more than three years. UK inflation climbed to 3.5% in September from 3.1%; three of the nine members of its Monetary Policy Committee already voted for a rise in September, and 54 of 63 economists polled by Reuters in mid-October expected one in November. Norway's Norges Bank, which raised in September, is expected to hold at 4.50% at 10:00. Their problem is timing: Brent fell almost 9% on Wednesday, so a hike now fights last month's inflation. The vote split will say more than the move.

Chart 5

Three central banks, two days

Policy rates before and after this week's decisions, %

Hover or tap a bank for details; pick an outcome below

Riksbank

2.00%

Raised, Wed 4 Nov

Riksbank: 2.00%, from 1.75%Wednesday 4 November 2026 (Riksbank; Trading Economics)Its first rise since September 2023

Norges Bank

4.50%

Hold expected, Thu 10:00

Norges Bank: hold at 4.50% expectedThursday 5 November 2026, 10:00 Paris (financecalendar.com)After a rise in September; no new Monetary Policy Report (Newsquawk)

Bank of England

4.00%?

Rise expected, Thu 13:00

Bank of England: 4.00% expectedThursday 5 November 2026, 13:00 Paris (12:00 GMT)Three of nine members already voted for a rise in September

Thursday's choice: Bank Rate minus inflation

Hold at 3.75%Rise to 4.00% (expected)Rise to 4.25%

+0.25 ptBank Rate above September's 3.5% inflationOur calculation: 3.75% minus 3.5%. A hold would surprise: 54 of 63 economists polled by Reuters in mid-October expected a rise.

+0.50 ptBank Rate above September's 3.5% inflationOur calculation: 4.00% minus 3.5%. Money markets almost fully priced this rise at the end of October, Reuters reported.

+0.75 ptBank Rate above September's 3.5% inflationOur calculation: 4.25% minus 3.5%. Analysts will watch whether any member votes for a bigger move.

Hatched: the rise. The Bank of England column shows the expected rate, not a decision. Real rates are simple differences with September inflation.

6. The Gulf plans for a Strait of Hormuz it can no longer trust

Even as traders bet on peace, the Gulf's oil producers are planning for a Strait of Hormuz that never fully reopens. Abu Dhabi's state oil company, ADNOC, is weighing a third pipeline from the UAE's western coast to the port of Fujairah, beyond the strait, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter; ADNOC called the report "not accurate and purely speculative". Its existing line to Fujairah can carry about 2 million barrels a day by Bloomberg's account, 1.5 million by OilPrice's, and a second line due in 2027 would double capacity. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline has been the kingdom's main outlet during the war, though it stopped temporarily after an attack in September, and Kuwait, which depends entirely on Hormuz, is in talks with both neighbours. Gulf exports averaged 17.1 million barrels a day in October, down from 18.9 million in September, Vortexa data show: about three-quarters of pre-war flows. Pipelines take years; the risk they hedge is immediate.

Thursday and the days ahead

Chart 6

Thursday 5 November

Key events. Times are Paris time (CET); New York is six hours behind

Hover or tap an event for details

Paris timeEventWhy it matters

All dayMississippi’s count goes on; Alaska’s next tally is due on 10 NovemberTwo seats decide whether the Senate ends 54, 55 or 56 for Democrats (story 1)Thursday 5 NovemberMississippi: thousands of affidavit ballots remain (Mississippi Free Press)Alaska: next count on 10 November, ranked choice on 18 November if needed (Division of Elections, via Alaska Watchman)

10:00Norges Bank decisionA hold at 4.50% is expected (story 5)10:00 Paris: Norges BankThursday 5 November (financecalendar.com)A hold at 4.50% after September's rise (Newsquawk)

13:00Bank of England decisionA rise to 4.00% from 3.75% is expected; the vote split matters (story 5)13:00 Paris: Bank of EnglandThursday 5 November, 12:00 GMT, with the Monetary Policy Report54 of 63 economists polled by Reuters in mid-October expected a rise (The Beaver)

14:30US initial jobless claims08:30 in New York; the last labour data before Friday’s payrolls (story 3)14:30 Paris: US jobless claimsThursday 5 November, 08:30 in New York (financecalendar.com)Payrolls follow on Friday 6 November

During the dayGerman factory orders; Swedish CPIF flash; US Challenger job cutsSeptember orders, October Swedish inflation, a day after the Riksbank’s riseThursday 5 November, times not givenListed by Newsquawk's week in focusSwedish CPIF was 1.5% in September (Newsquawk)

Chart 7

The rest of the week and beyond

Dates to watch after Thursday

Hover or tap a day for details

Friday

6 Nov

US jobs

October payrolls: consensus +55,000, after +29,000; unemployment 4.2%

Friday 6 NovemberUS jobs report for October (Newsquawk)Barclays forecasts 50,000 and a fall in unemployment to 4.1%

Next week

10 and 11 Nov

Abu Dhabi

Three-way talks on Ukraine; Vladimir Medinsky leads for Moscow

10 and 11 November, Abu DhabiConfirmed by the Kremlin on 3 November (Reuters via Al-Monitor)Steve Witkoff says they will cover post-war security and de-escalation

January

3 Jan 2027

New Congress

Democrats take both chambers; Hakeem Jeffries is poised to become Speaker

3 January 2027The new Congress convenes (Sunday Guardian Live)Jeffries would succeed Mike Johnson (Forbes)

Alaska’s next count is due on 10 November, with ranked-choice tabulation, if needed, on 18 November and certification on 25 November.