Analysis

30 articles published

Analysis

Collusion Without Conspiracy: How AI Agents Could Break Finance, and the Law Behind It

BlackRock says AI agents may one day save in bitcoin and spend in stablecoins. The bigger risk is elsewhere: millions of agents built on a handful of models could make the same decisions, coordinate without talking and pay each other with no human in the loop. Banking rules, competition law and the fight against dirty money were not built for that.

8 October 202610 min

Collusion Without Conspiracy: How AI Agents Could Break Finance, and the Law Behind It

Analysis

Raiffeisen's Russian bank is shrinking, but a short seller's customs data puts its sanctions record back under scrutiny

On 17 September 2026 Grizzly Research, a short seller betting against Raiffeisen Bank International, alleged that Russian customs records tied to the Austrian group's Moscow subsidiary cover $1.19bn of trade in goods matching Western restrictions. RBI denies wrongdoing and says an internal review cleared it. We set the allegations against what is established: a Russian unit that still earns hundreds of millions of euros a year, which RBI cannot sell, and which Washington and Frankfurt have pressed it to shrink since 2023.

7 October 202612 min

Raiffeisen's Russian bank is shrinking, but a short seller's customs data puts its sanctions record back under scrutiny

Analysis

A7: How a Russian Shadow Bank Hid Billions Inside Ordinary Trade

Set up by a fugitive oligarch and Russia's defence bank, A7 moved billions through hundreds of front companies, forged invoices and some of the world's best-known banks. On 1 October, Washington branded it a criminal organisation. Here is how the network works, who it served, and what it reveals about the limits of sanctions.

7 October 20265 min

A7: How a Russian Shadow Bank Hid Billions Inside Ordinary Trade

Analysis

The Hair Dryer and the Shell Company: How Nvidia Chips Reach China

Two US prosecutions, about $2.8 billion of AI hardware, the same playbook: a front buyer in Southeast Asia, a transit hub that requires no licence, a fake consignee, and money flowing back through intermediaries. Export controls are a customs problem on paper. In practice, they are a financial crime.

6 October 20264 min

The Hair Dryer and the Shell Company: How Nvidia Chips Reach China

Analysis

Memory Is the New Chokepoint. Follow the Money, and the Smugglers

AI has turned the humble memory chip into the scarcest component in the world economy. Three companies, two of them Korean, collect the windfall. China is racing to catch up, sometimes with stolen blueprints. And wherever a shortage creates rents, a grey market follows

5 October 20265 min

Samsung’s specialized ‘high-bandwidth memory’ chip used in cutting-edge AI servers

Analysis

France's Debt Bill Is Rising. Its Fraud Bill Already Was

Markets now charge France more to borrow than at any time since 2008, and some investors are positioning for worse. The money lost to tax fraud is smaller than the interest bill, but it is the one sum Paris can recover without raising a single tax.

1 October 20266 min

France's Debt Bill Is Rising. Its Fraud Bill Already Was

Analysis

Djibouti Signs Up for the Moon. The Stakes Are on the Ground.

A country of about a million people, two small satellites and a Hong Kong-backed spaceport project has joined America's rules for the Moon. For Djibouti, it is the latest move in a long game of keeping every great power close.

28 September 20265 min

Djibouti Signs Up for the Moon. The Stakes Are on the Ground.

Analysis

"Powered by BlackRock", Issued by Ondo

The world's largest asset manager has lent its name and its models to three onchain portfolios. It does not issue them, run them or hold the assets. That gap is where the risk sits.

25 September 20265 min

"Powered by BlackRock", Issued by Ondo

Analysis

French Spy Chiefs Brief Parliament as Europe Weighs Russia's Sub-Threshold War

Between 14 and 18 September 2026, five European governments moved independently to alert their publics to a shifting Russian threat, with France's intelligence chiefs briefing party leaders and 2027 presidential candidates at the Élysée. The assessments are convergent but conditional, pointing to a 2028 to 2029 window and a campaign of deniable sabotage rather than an imminent attack. A parallel energy crisis, with the Strait of Hormuz still largely blocked, compounds the strategic picture.

19 September 20267 min

French Spy Chiefs Brief Parliament as Europe Weighs Russia's Sub-Threshold War

Analysis

SEC grants five-year exemption to open US market for tokenized stocks !

The US Securities and Exchange Commission unveiled an "innovation exemption" on Thursday allowing platforms to offer trading in blockchain-based versions of shares. The measure gives trading venues and liquidity providers five years of relief from exchange and dealer registration rules, and follows the Senate's failure days earlier to advance President Donald Trump's cryptocurrency legislation.

17 September 20263 min

SEC grants five-year exemption to open US market for tokenized stocks !

Analysis

Congress hands Trump a 100% tariff weapon against Russian oil buyers

The US House has passed a sweeping Russia sanctions bill that lets President Trump impose tariffs of up to 100% on the biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas, above all China and India. Analysts expect Trump to hold the authority in reserve as leverage rather than deploy it immediately, given a looming summit with Xi Jinping and delicate trade talks with New Delhi. China has already condemned the measure, and India says it will not change course.

17 September 20265 min

Congress hands Trump a 100% tariff weapon against Russian oil buyers

Analysis

Warsh-led Fed defies Trump with unanimous rate rise as yields hit 5%

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point to a range of 3.75% to 4% on 16 September 2026, its first increase since July 2023, in a unanimous 12-0 vote led by Chair Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump's own appointee. Trump, who has demanded rates of 1% or less, called the decision the work of a "hostile board" while insisting he still backed Warsh. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed back above 5% as the central bank signalled at least one further hike this year.

17 September 20264 min

Warsh-led Fed defies Trump with unanimous rate rise as yields hit 5%

Analysis

Polymarket's illicit-finance risk sits in the gap between its two exchanges

No prosecutor or regulator has accused Polymarket itself of money laundering. But 2025 and 2026 brought the first US insider-trading prosecutions on its markets, one with a money-laundering count, academic estimates of heavy wash trading and informed trading, and a reported stolen-card attack on its new US exchange. We read the topic as a question about how one brand running an anonymous, stablecoin-settled offshore market and an identity-checked US exchange handles dirty money, and what regulators have done about it.

8 August 202613 min

Polymarket's illicit-finance risk sits in the gap between its two exchanges