1. Democrats take Congress, and Trump loses his free hand

Halfway through his second term, Donald Trump has lost his grip on Congress. Democrats won both the House and the Senate on Tuesday, according to projections by the Associated Press and the US networks. In the Senate they flipped at least seven Republican-held seats, by Le Détroit's count of called races: Roy Cooper in North Carolina, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, James Talarico, who beat Ken Paxton in Texas, Adam Hamilton in Kansas and Annie Andrews in South Carolina, plus Iowa and Maine, where Susan Collins conceded to Troy Jackson. Michigan, a seat Democrats already held, was too close to call overnight. Trump told The New York Times he was "absolutely willing to accept those results", then posted a picture of a red cap marked VETO. From January, every spending bill and every nominee will need Democratic votes, and Democrats will chair the House committees that can subpoena his administration.

2 of 2
chambers won by Democrats, by AP and network projections
House and SenateProjections by the AP and US networks, early on Wednesday 4 November 2026New terms begin at noon on 3 January 2027
7
Republican-held Senate seats flipped in called races, by Le Détroit's count
At least 7 seatsCalled races as of about 07:30 Paris, Wednesday 4 November 2026North Carolina, Texas, Ohio, Kansas, South Carolina, Iowa and Maine
51+
Senate seats for Democrats and the two independents who sit with them
At least 51 seatsAP and network projections, early on Wednesday 4 November 2026Some races, including Michigan's, were still being counted
Chart 1
The majority line
Seats held before the vote, and what Democrats needed

Hover or tap a bar segment for details

House of Representatives435 seats, all on the ballot
218 Republicans218 RepublicansHouse seats held before the vote of 3 November 2026218 is also the number needed for a majority of the 435 seats1 independent and 2 vacant seatsBefore the vote of 3 November 2026The independent sits with the Republicans214 Democrats214 DemocratsHouse seats held before the vote of 3 November 2026They won 215 in 2024; three more than that, 218, is a majority
218 seats for a majority
Democrats need 3 seats more than the 215 they won in 2024. One independent sits with the Republicans; two seats are vacant
Senate100 seats, 35 on the ballot
53 Republicans53 RepublicansSenate seats held before the vote of 3 November 2026Republicans defend 22 of the 35 seats on the ballot2 independentsSenate seats held before the vote of 3 November 2026Both sit with the Democrats, for 47 seats in all45 Democrats45 DemocratsSenate seats held before the vote of 3 November 2026With the two independents, 47: a net gain of 4 makes 51; at 50-50, JD Vance's vote decides
50 seats: the tie line
Democrats and the two independents who sit with them need a net gain of 4, for 51; at 50-50, Vice-President Vance’s vote decides. Republicans defend 22 of the 35 seats
Governors50 states, 36 races
26 Republicans26 Republican governorsBefore the vote of 3 November 2026, which elects 36 governorsToss-ups include Georgia, Nevada and Alaska, all three held by Republicans24 Democrats24 Democratic governorsBefore the vote of 3 November 2026Wisconsin, an open Democratic seat, is among the toss-ups
Half of the states
Toss-ups include Georgia, Nevada and Alaska, held by Republicans, and Wisconsin, an open Democratic seat
RepublicansDemocratsIndependentsVacant

Before the vote. Democrats cleared both lines on Tuesday, by AP and network projections; final counts are not in yet.

Source Al Jazeera (26 October 2026); Fox News (3 November 2026)Le Détroit
Calculator
Majority maths
Democrats won both chambers, by AP and network projections; pick a gain to see the arithmetic

Pick a gain in each chamber; the results update

HouseSeats Democrats win beyond the 215 they won in 2024

SenateNet seats gained by Democrats and the two independents who sit with them

215216217218219220221222223Democrats220219218217216215214213212Republicans
213218: majority225

Republicans would keep the House, 220 to 215: Democrats 3 shortRepublicans would keep the House, 219 to 216: Democrats 2 shortRepublicans would keep the House, 218 to 217: Democrats 1 shortDemocrats would take the House, 218 to 217Democrats would take the House, 219 to 216Democrats would take the House, 220 to 215Democrats would take the House, 221 to 214Democrats would take the House, 222 to 213Democrats would take the House, 223 to 212

47484950515253Democrats and independents53525150494847Republicans
4550: tie, 51: majority55

Republicans would keep the Senate, 53 to 47Republicans would keep the Senate, 52 to 48Republicans would keep the Senate, 51 to 4950-50: Vice-President JD Vance’s casting vote would keep Republicans in chargeDemocrats and the two independents would take the Senate, 51 to 49Democrats and the two independents would take the Senate, 52 to 48Democrats and the two independents would take the Senate, 53 to 47

CongressDemocrats would control both chambersA split Congress: a Democratic House, a Republican SenateA split Congress: a Republican House, a Democratic SenateRepublicans would keep both chambers

Le Détroit’s arithmetic on the seats held before the vote. Final counts were not in at 07:30 Paris; the Senate chip marked “At least” is the AP and network projection. In the House, every seat Democrats do not win is counted as Republican; in the Senate, the two independents are counted with the Democrats. Each square is one seat around the majority line.

Source Al Jazeera (26 October 2026); Fox News (3 November 2026); Le Détroit calculationLe Détroit

2. After US strikes on Qeshm, Tehran sets seven conditions for reopening Hormuz

Donald Trump's pre-election pause on Iran ran out with the vote, and it had already frayed. On 8 October he promised that the United States "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections". Yet late on Monday US forces struck Iran's Qeshm Island after Iran fired at an American aircraft, a US official said; officials called the strikes limited and "defensive", not a return to US strikes. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of its Supreme National Security Council, said Washington's reply to Iran's demands "was not convincing" and that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen only once seven conditions are met, from lifting oil sanctions to war reparations. Qatar's mediators are back in Doha; an official told Reuters replies from both capitals were due within 36 hours, though a senior Iranian official said there was no deadline. Brent swung by more than $6 before settling 1.1% lower at $103.60; US crude fell 0.4% to $96.09.

$103.60
Brent at Tuesday's settle, down 1.1%, its lowest close since 7 October
Brent: $103.60 a barrelSettlement of Tuesday 3 November 2026, January contractDown $1.17, its lowest close since 7 October, after a swing of more than $6 in the day
7
conditions Iran sets before it reopens the Strait of Hormuz
7 conditionsReported on Tuesday 3 November 2026; the full list is Anadolu'sReuters and Fox News confirm the count of seven and cite oil sanctions, the blockade and frozen funds
36 hours
the window for replies from Washington and Tehran, by one official’s account; Tehran says there is no deadline
36 hoursReuters, Tuesday 3 November 2026, citing an official briefed on the talksQatar's mediators are back in Doha; a senior Iranian official told Reuters there is no deadline
Chart 2
Seven locks on Hormuz
The conditions Iran sets before reopening the strait, as reported on 3 November 2026

Hover or tap a lock for details

CeasefireA ceasefire across the Middle East
Condition 1: a ceasefire across the Middle EastListed by Anadolu (via Middle East Monitor), 3 November 2026Reuters and Fox News confirm the count of seven, not this item
Frozen assetsRelease of Iranian assets frozen abroad
Condition 2: release of frozen assetsListed by Anadolu (via Middle East Monitor), 3 November 2026One of the three that Reuters and Fox News also cite
Oil sanctionsSanctions on Iran’s oil sector lifted
Condition 3: oil sanctions liftedListed by Anadolu (via Middle East Monitor), 3 November 2026One of the three that Reuters and Fox News also cite
BlockadeAn end to the US naval blockade
Condition 4: an end to the US naval blockadeListed by Anadolu (via Middle East Monitor), 3 November 2026One of the three that Reuters and Fox News also cite
ReparationsPayment of war reparations
Condition 5: war reparationsListed by Anadolu (via Middle East Monitor), 3 November 2026Also among the five principles set out on Tuesday by Ali Abdollahi, chief of staff of Iran's armed forces
US forcesWithdrawal of US forces
Condition 6: withdrawal of US forcesListed by Anadolu (via Middle East Monitor), 3 November 2026Reuters and Fox News confirm the count of seven, not this item
InterferenceAn end to threats and interference
Condition 7: an end to threats and interferenceListed by Anadolu (via Middle East Monitor), 3 November 2026Reuters and Fox News confirm the count of seven, not this item
Then HormuzOnly then, says Mohsen Rezaei, would the strait reopen
Then the strait would reopenMohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Tuesday 3 November 2026Only once the seven conditions are met; he said Washington's reply to Iran's demands “was not convincing”

The full list is Anadolu’s; Reuters and Fox News confirm the count of seven and cite oil sanctions, the blockade and frozen funds. Iran’s armed forces chief of staff, Ali Abdollahi, set out five principles on Tuesday, including war reparations and recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the strait.

Source Middle East Monitor, citing Anadolu (3 November 2026); Reuters via The Sunday Times (3 November 2026); Fox News (3 November 2026)Le Détroit

3. Binance traces its $6.34bn theft to a fake job interview and an internal AI tool

The largest theft in crypto's history began with people, not code. Binance's initial report, published on Tuesday, traces the $6.34 billion in assets impacted on 29 October to a campaign that began in June, when a Wallet DevOps engineer downloaded a tampered Homebrew installation to install an AI coding tool. Binance caught that one; it missed the next. In September a second engineer, contacted on a legitimate job platform, was told by a fictitious company's "CEO" to download an "assignment" onto his work computer. On 20 October the attacker used that machine and an internal AI tool to gain control over two other engineers, including the first, who had a container deployment permission token. On 29 October it reached the wallet signing service; the transfers the report lists begin at 20:05 UTC. About $2.85 billion has been frozen or intercepted, subject to reconciliation; Binance had replenished 98% of the impacted assets by 31 October. The FBI blamed North Korea's TraderTraitor on 31 October.

$6.34bn
impacted on 29 October, the largest crypto theft on record
$6.34bn impacted29 October 2026, from Binance's initial report of 3 NovemberThe largest crypto theft on record; the FBI attributed it to North Korea's TraderTraitor on 31 October
$2.85bn
frozen or intercepted so far, Binance says, subject to reconciliation
$2.85bn frozen or interceptedAs of Binance's initial report, 3 November 2026Subject to reconciliation and market price volatility, Binance says
57
suspected North Korea-linked cases Binance says it stopped in 2026
57 casesDetected and prevented by Binance's security team in 2026Suspected North Korea-linked cyber threat cases, by Binance's own count
Chart 3
Five doors to the signing service
How the attacker reached Binance's hot wallets, from Binance's initial report of 3 November 2026

Hover or tap a door for details; pick a figure under the doors to split the total

June 2026Tampered downloadEngineer A downloads a tampered Homebrew to install an AI coding toolDetected
Door 1, June 2026: detectedEngineer A, from Wallet DevOps, downloaded a tampered Homebrew installation to install an AI coding toolBinance replaced the device and rotated all related credentials, but his role and his wallet-team colleagues had been exposed
SeptemberFake interviewEngineer B downloads a fake CEO’s “assignment” onto his work computerMissed
Door 2, September 2026: missedEngineer B, contacted on a legitimate job platform, was told by a fictitious company’s “CEO” to download an “assignment”The 0-day malware was not detected by endpoint security tools at the time, the report says
20 OctoberInternal AI toolFrom B’s machine, the attacker gains control over A and CMissed
Door 3, 20 October 2026: missedFrom B's machine, the attacker used an internal AI tool to gain control over engineers A and CA had a container deployment permission token on his computer
29 Oct, from 17:15Stolen credentialsOn C’s computer, with A’s credentials: a container, then a scriptMissed
Door 4, 29 October 2026, 17:15 to 19:56: missedOn C's computer, with credentials stolen from A, the attacker deployed a container and triggered a scriptThe report gives no time zone for these two times
29 Oct, 20:05 UTCSigning serviceTransfers signed outside the normal withdrawal processMissed
Door 5, 29 October 2026, from 20:05 UTC: missedThrough the wallet signing service, transfers were signed outside the normal withdrawal process$6.34bn impacted; Binance had replenished 98% of the impacted assets by 31 October
$2.85bn frozen or intercepted$3.49bn not frozen (our calculation)

Binance's count of the assets impacted on 29 October. It says it had replenished 98% of them by 31 October and will absorb the loss.About 45% of the total, by our calculation. Binance says the $2.85bn is subject to reconciliation and market price volatility.A Le Détroit calculation, $6.34bn minus $2.85bn, about 55% of the total; Binance's report gives no such figure.

Door 1 was detected and A’s device replaced, but his role and his wallet-team colleagues had been exposed. The report gives no time zone for 17:15 to 19:56. The FBI attributed the theft to North Korea’s TraderTraitor on 31 October.

Source Binance, initial report on the 29 October security incident (3 November 2026); Le Détroit calculationLe Détroit

4. Wall Street buys back chips while bond yields climb towards 5%

Investors went back to chips on Tuesday, but the bond market sent a less comfortable message. The Nasdaq rose 0.8% to 25,372 and the S&P 500 0.4% to 7,569 as chipmakers led, with Nvidia up 2.3% and AMD 3.7%; the Dow slipped 0.4%, and Apple fell 1.9% on services worries. America's labour market refuses to cool: job openings stood at 7.5 million in September, above the 7.1 million expected and a revised 7.2 million in August, and quits climbed to 3.4 million from 3.0 million, a sign that workers still feel safe to move. With Brent above $100, that is not what bond investors wanted to see: the ten-year Treasury yield rose 6.4 basis points to 4.958%, within reach of 5%. Europe fell on renewed worries about AI spending; the Stoxx 600 lost about 0.5% and London's FTSE 100 about 1%. After the close, AMD reported third-quarter revenue up 45% to $13.4 billion and forecast about $17 billion for the fourth quarter.

+0.8%
the Nasdaq on Tuesday, to 25,372, as chips rebounded
Nasdaq: 25,372.01, up 0.83%Close of Tuesday 3 November 2026Chipmakers led, with Nvidia up 2.3% and AMD 3.7%
7.5m
US job openings in September, above the 7.1m expected
7.5 million job openings in SeptemberBLS JOLTS release, Tuesday 3 November 2026Above the 7.1m expected and a revised 7.2m in August; the BLS calls it little changed
4.958%
the ten-year Treasury yield, up 6.4 basis points
Ten-year Treasury yield: 4.958%Tuesday 3 November 2026, up 6.4 basis points (Kiplinger)4.2 basis points below 5%, by our calculation
Chart 4
A rebound in chips, a warning from bonds
Tuesday 3 November 2026, closing levels and changes on the day

Hover or tap a tile, a bar or a marker for details

New York, close
Nasdaq▲ +0.83%25,372.01Nasdaq: 25,372.01, +0.83%Close of Tuesday 3 November 2026Chipmakers led the rebound
S&P 500▲ +0.36%7,568.92S&P 500: 7,568.92, +0.36%Close of Tuesday 3 November 2026Up as chipmakers led
Dow▼ -0.38%51,786.72Dow: 51,786.72, -0.38%Close of Tuesday 3 November 2026The only one of these four indices to fall
Russell 2000▲ +0.27%2,813.48Russell 2000: 2,813.48, +0.27%Close of Tuesday 3 November 2026Up, like the Nasdaq and the S&P 500
Movers
AMD▲ +3.7%$483.90, before resultsAMD: $483.90, +3.65%Close of Tuesday 3 November 2026, before its resultsAfter the close: third-quarter revenue up 45% to $13.4bn, about $17bn forecast for the fourth
Nvidia▲ +2.3%chipmakerNvidia: +2.3%Tuesday 3 November 2026 (Kiplinger)Among the chipmakers that led the market
Apple▼ -1.9%services worriesApple: -1.9%Tuesday 3 November 2026 (Kiplinger)On concerns about slowing growth and shrinking margins in its services business
Palantir▼ -1.7%after its resultsPalantir: -1.7%Tuesday 3 November 2026 (Kiplinger)In the aftermath of its third-quarter results
Europe and oil
CAC 40▼ -0.3%8,020.31CAC 40: 8,020.31, -0.34%Close of Tuesday 3 November 2026 (Money Times)Europe fell on renewed worries about AI spending
Stoxx 600▼ -0.5%pan-EuropeanStoxx 600: about -0.5%Close of Tuesday 3 November 2026-0.47% (Money Times) or -0.6% (CashCow): the sources differ, so the change is rounded
FTSE 100▼ -1.0%LondonFTSE 100: about -1%Close of Tuesday 3 November 2026-1.03% (Money Times) or -1.1% (CashCow)
Brent▼ -1.1%$103.60, settleBrent: $103.60, -1.1%Settlement of Tuesday 3 November 2026, January contractIts lowest close since 7 October; US crude fell 0.4% to $96.09
US job openings, millions
Expected
7.1m
7.1 million expectedConsensus for September, before the BLS release of 3 November 2026Yahoo Finance's figure
August
7.2m
7.2 million in AugustAs revised by the BLS on 3 November 2026Revised up by 111,000
September
7.5m
7.5 million in SeptemberBLS JOLTS, 3 November 2026Little changed, the BLS says; quits climbed to 3.4m from 3.0m
Ten-year Treasury yield
Mon 4.894%Monday: about 4.894%Close of Monday 2 November 2026, derived by Le DétroitTuesday's 4.958% minus its 6.4 basis-point riseTue 4.958%Tuesday: 4.958%Close of Tuesday 3 November 2026Up 6.4 basis points (Kiplinger); Trading Economics put it at 4.96% to 4.97%5%5%The line in view on Tuesday 3 November 2026Tuesday's close was 4.2 basis points below it, by our calculation

Monday's level derived from Tuesday's rise

European closes differ between sources, so changes are rounded. The 7.1m consensus is Yahoo Finance’s; the BLS calls September openings little changed.

Source Yahoo Finance (3 November 2026); Kiplinger (3 November 2026); US Bureau of Labor Statistics, JOLTS (3 November 2026); Trading Economics (3 November 2026); Money Times and CashCow (3 November 2026); Bloomberg via Rigzone (3 November 2026)Le Détroit

5. Trump says US military aid to Israel will stop at the end of the year

Donald Trump has put a date on the end of America's military aid to Israel, and he chose Election Day to do it. "We were giving them $4 billion. We are. But it gets cut off at the end of the year," he told Fox & Friends on Tuesday, adding that Benjamin Netanyahu had "brought it up". The money flows from a ten-year memorandum signed in 2016: $38 billion for the fiscal years 2019 to 2028, or $3.8 billion a year. A cut-off at the end of December would land three months into fiscal 2027, leaving the last two years in doubt. Much of the money never leaves America: this year Israel must spend 92% of the financing on US-made equipment. Congress votes the money each year, and a deal between two leaders does not cancel funds already appropriated. Israeli finance and defence officials were surprised; Gadi Eisenkot, Netanyahu's main rival, said he "can no longer be trusted and must be replaced".

$3.8bn
a year under the 2016 memorandum: $3.3bn of military financing and $0.5bn for missile defence
$3.8bn a yearUnder the memorandum signed in 2016, fiscal years 2019 to 2028$3.3bn of Foreign Military Financing and $0.5bn for missile defence; $38bn in all
FY2028
when the $38bn memorandum was due to end
Fiscal 2028The memorandum's last year, ending on 30 September 2028The memorandum is not legally binding; Congress appropriates the money each year
92%
of the financing Israel must spend on US-made equipment this year
92%Share of the financing to be spent on US-made equipment in 2026 and 2027Rising to 100% in 2028, ABC News reports
Chart 5
Ten years of aid, and Trump's cut-off
The 2016 US-Israel memorandum of understanding, by US fiscal year (October to September)

Hover or tap a year for details

$38bn for fiscal years 2019 to 2028, $3.8bn a year
$3.8bn
FY19
FY2019: $3.8bn planned1 October 2018 to 30 September 2019The first year of the $38bn memorandum signed in 2016
$3.8bn
FY20
FY2020: $3.8bn planned1 October 2019 to 30 September 2020$3.3bn of Foreign Military Financing and $0.5bn for missile defence
$3.8bn
FY21
FY2021: $3.8bn planned1 October 2020 to 30 September 2021$3.3bn of Foreign Military Financing and $0.5bn for missile defence
$3.8bn
FY22
FY2022: $3.8bn planned1 October 2021 to 30 September 2022$3.3bn of Foreign Military Financing and $0.5bn for missile defence
$3.8bn
FY23
FY2023: $3.8bn planned1 October 2022 to 30 September 2023$3.3bn of Foreign Military Financing and $0.5bn for missile defence
$3.8bn
FY24
FY2024: $3.8bn planned1 October 2023 to 30 September 2024$3.3bn of Foreign Military Financing and $0.5bn for missile defence
$3.8bn
FY25
FY2025: $3.8bn planned1 October 2024 to 30 September 2025$3.3bn of Foreign Military Financing and $0.5bn for missile defence
$3.8bn
FY26
FY2026: $3.8bn planned1 October 2025 to 30 September 2026The last fiscal year that ends before Trump's cut-off at the end of 2026
End of 2026
$3.8bn
FY27
FY2027: $3.8bn planned1 October 2026 to 30 September 2027A cut-off at the end of December falls three months in, a quarter of the way into the year
$3.8bn
FY28
FY2028: $3.8bn planned1 October 2027 to 30 September 2028The memorandum's last year, entirely after the cut-off; Congress votes the money each year
Foreign Military Financing, $3.3bn a yearMissile defence, $0.5bnAfter Trump’s cut-off

Planned annual levels. Fiscal 2027 began on 1 October 2026, so a cut-off at the end of the year falls a quarter of the way into it. The memorandum is not legally binding; Congress appropriates the money each year.

Source The Jerusalem Post (3 November 2026); ABC News (3 November 2026); JTA (3 November 2026)Le Détroit

6. Washington moves to drop South Africa and Rwanda from its African trade preferences

Washington is turning its flagship African trade preference into a sanctions tool. Trump has told Congress that South Africa and Rwanda will leave the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) on 1 January 2027, for practices "inconsistent with AGOA's eligibility criteria", US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed on Monday. The move bites only if Congress renews AGOA, which expires on 31 December. For Rwanda it is the third turn of the screw since June, when the Treasury sanctioned Gasabo Gold, a Kigali refinery it says moved gold out of rebel-held eastern Congo; on 28 October, the defence ministry and Zigama, a savings society it says funded army weapons, for backing the M23 rebels, which Rwanda denies. For South Africa the cost is more political than commercial: its AGOA exports fell from about $4 billion in 2024 to $1.7 billion in 2025, about 1% of its exports. Washington cited corruption and trade barriers; Pretoria says the US raised new issues outside the talks.

1 Jan 2027
when the exclusion takes effect, the day after AGOA itself lapses unless Congress renews it
1 January 2027When the exclusion of South Africa and Rwanda takes effect, confirmed by Jamieson Greer on Monday 2 NovemberAGOA itself is authorised only until 31 December 2026
$1.7bn
South Africa's exports under AGOA in 2025, about 1% of its total exports (US data: $1.6bn)
About $1.7bn in 2025South Africa's exports under AGOA, 10% of its US-bound exportsAbout 1% of its total exports; US data put them at $1.6bn
3
US measures against Rwanda since June, AGOA included
3 US measures against Rwanda25 June, 28 October and 2 November 2026Sanctions on Gasabo Gold, then on the defence ministry and Zigama, then the AGOA notice
Chart 6
Trade as a sanction
South Africa's AGOA exports, and the US measures against Rwanda since June 2026

Hover or tap a row for details; pick a scenario below

South Africa: AGOA exports to the US
2024about $4bn, 28% of its US-bound exports
About $4bn in 2024South Africa's exports under AGOA, full year 202428% of its US-bound exports, the Mail & Guardian reports
2025about $1.7bn, 10%
About $1.7bn in 2025South Africa's exports under AGOA, full year 202510% of its US-bound exports and about 1% of its total exports; US data: $1.6bn
From 2027if the exclusion stands, or AGOA lapses
No AGOA access
No AGOA access from 1 January 2027If the exclusion stands, or if AGOA lapses on 31 December 2026Washington cited corruption and trade barriers; Pretoria says the US raised new issues outside the talks

One container = $250m

Rwanda: three turns of the screw
25 June 2026
Treasury sanctions Gasabo Gold, a Kigali refinery it says moved gold out of M23-held eastern Congo
25 June 2026: Gasabo GoldUS Treasury sanctions on a Kigali gold refineryTreasury says it moved gold out of M23-held eastern Congo; its allegations are not court findings
28 October
The defence ministry and Zigama, a savings society Treasury says paid for army weapons, are sanctioned over support for M23
28 October 2026: defence ministry and ZigamaUS Treasury sanctions over support for the M23 rebelsTreasury says Zigama, a savings society, paid for army weapons; Rwanda denies ties to M23
2 November
Notice that Rwanda’s AGOA access will end
2 November 2026: the AGOA noticeConfirmed by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on MondayFor practices “inconsistent with AGOA’s eligibility criteria”
1 January 2027
Termination due to take effect, for Rwanda and South Africa
1 January 2027Termination due to take effect, for Rwanda and South AfricaThe day after AGOA's own authorisation runs out, unless Congress renews it

What 31 December decides

South Africa and Rwanda

Out from 1 January 2027 if the termination stands: the exclusion bitesNo AGOA access from 1 January 2027 anyway: AGOA itself ends

AGOA itself

Continues past 31 December 2026, on the terms Congress setsEnds on 31 December 2026, when its authorisation runs out

Washington alleges that Rwanda supports the M23 rebels in eastern Congo; Rwanda denies ties to the group. Treasury’s allegations are not court findings. AGOA is authorised until 31 December 2026.

Source Mail & Guardian (3 November 2026); The Cooperator (3 November 2026); US Treasury (25 June 2026); Citizen Digital (29 October 2026); GHY International (2 November 2026); Congressional Research Service (14 August 2026)Le Détroit

Wednesday and the week ahead

Chart 7
Wednesday 4 November
Key events. Times are Paris time (CET); New York is six hours behind

Hover or tap an event for details

Paris timeEventWhy it matters
All dayUS counts go on after Democrats take CongressMichigan's Senate race and the final seat counts (story 1)Wednesday 4 NovemberDemocrats won both chambers, by AP and network projections early on WednesdayThe bulk of Alaska's mail results is not expected before 18 November
06:00 to 20:00South Africa’s local electionsMore than 29 million registered; Johannesburg is the key test (story 6)06:00 to 20:00 Paris, Wednesday 4 November07:00 to 21:00 in South Africa, the official voting hoursMore than 29 million registered voters
09:30Riksbank decisionA rise to 2.00%, from 1.75%, is expected09:30 Paris: the Riksbank's decisionWednesday 4 November, the time in the Riksbank's 2026 calendarA quarter-point rise to 2.00%, from 1.75%, is expected (Newsquawk)
11:00Euro-area inflation, October flashSeptember: 3.8%, core 2.5%11:00 Paris: euro-area inflationFlash estimate for October, Wednesday 4 NovemberSeptember: 3.8% overall, 2.5% core
14:15 and 16:00ADP payrolls; ISM servicesConsensus about 67,000 jobs; ISM forecasts 54.7 to 54.9, after 54.914:15 and 16:00 Paris: ADP and ISMWednesday 4 November, 08:15 and 10:00 in New YorkADP: about 67,000 jobs expected. ISM services: forecasts of 54.7 (Newsquawk) to 54.9 (ZeroHedge), after 54.9
During the dayUS Treasury quarterly refundingIssuance plans, with the ten-year yield near 5% (story 4)US Treasury quarterly refundingWednesday 4 November; no time givenIssuance plans, a day after the ten-year yield rose 6.4 basis points to 4.958%
After the US closeQualcomm resultsThe next chipmaker to report, after AMD (story 4)Qualcomm results, after the US closeWednesday 4 November: 05:00 Thursday Beijing time in TechFlow's calendar, 22:00 ParisAfter AMD, which reported third-quarter revenue up 45% to $13.4bn on Tuesday

Tuesday 3 November, US close: the Nasdaq rose 0.8% to 25,372 and the S&P 500 0.4% to 7,569, while the Dow fell 0.4% to 51,787; Brent settled 1.1% lower at $103.60 (Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg via Rigzone). On Wednesday in Asia, Brent eased 0.25% to $103.34 by 02:57 Paris (Reuters via Business Recorder).

Source Sveriges Riksbank calendar 2026; Newsquawk (week in focus, 2 to 6 November 2026); ZeroHedge (key events this week); TechFlow (4 November calendar); Associated Press via WFSB (3 November 2026); SAnews (South African government); The Rio Times (3 November 2026)Le Détroit
Chart 8
The rest of the week
Dates to watch, 5 to 11 November 2026

Hover or tap a day for details

Thursday
5 Nov
Bank of England
13:00: a rise to 4.00%, from 3.75%, is expected. Norges Bank is expected to hold at 4.50%
Thursday 5 November, 13:00 ParisBank of England decision, 12:00 GMT; Bank Rate is 3.75%A rise to 4.00% is expected; Norges Bank is expected to hold at 4.50%
Friday
6 Nov
US jobs
14:30: October payrolls, consensus 55,000 to 62,000, unemployment 4.2%. Verdict in Tundu Lissu’s treason trial
Friday 6 November, 14:30 ParisUS jobs report for October, 08:30 in New YorkPayrolls consensus 55,000 to 62,000, unemployment 4.2%; Tundu Lissu's verdict is also due
Next week
10 and 11 Nov
Abu Dhabi
Three-way talks on Ukraine, confirmed by the Kremlin on Tuesday; Vladimir Medinsky leads for Moscow
10 and 11 November, Abu DhabiTrilateral talks on Ukraine, confirmed by the Kremlin on Tuesday 3 NovemberVladimir Medinsky leads for Moscow (Reuters via Al-Monitor)

If no Senate candidate in Georgia wins a majority, a runoff is held on 1 December; Alaska’s mail-in results are not expected before 18 November.

Source Bank of England and BLS release calendars; Newsquawk (2 to 6 November 2026); Forex Fundamentals (BoE, 5 November 2026); ZeroHedge; Reuters via Al-Monitor (3 November 2026); The Rio Times (3 November 2026)Le Détroit