Morning Brief, Tuesday 10 November

1. Hormuz turns into a fight over lanes, and Iraq is asked to shut its Iran gates

The question in Hormuz is no longer whether the strait is open but whose lane a tanker is on. Iraq’s foreign minister, Fuad Hussein, told Al Jazeera on Sunday that Baghdad had reached understandings with Washington for Iraqi oil to leave through the strait via a shipping lane near Oman. Tehran wants its own arrangement: among the demands that came with the proposal it sent through Qatari mediators on 5 November, it wants the US to formally recognise an Iran-Oman route and close all other routes.

Baghdad also faces a request on land. In the same interview, Hussein said the US Treasury had asked Iraq to close all its crossings with Iran except two, one of them in the Kurdistan region, as part of Washington’s economic pressure on Tehran, and that talks were continuing; Iraq shut the Sheeb crossing last month to install equipment against smuggling. He put Iraq’s losses from the war and the export disruption at $60bn. Exports recovered to about 3.5m barrels a day in October, from 2.65m in September, Iraqi officials say.

2. Russia worked France’s riots online, but MAGA and Israeli accounts were far louder

Europe’s information problem is not only Russian. A restricted EU document prepared by disinformation experts in the bloc’s diplomatic service, reported by Reuters on Monday, says a covert Russian network known as Operation Overload exploited France’s October riots with videos impersonating Western media, some falsely claiming that migrants had raped protesters or that terrorist attacks were imminent. It found no evidence that Moscow or anyone else instigated or escalated the unrest, calling it “opportunistic exploitation”.

A separate French foreign ministry analysis measured the reach. From 16 to 18 October the ten most-viewed posts on X from pro-Russian spheres drew 2.8m views; the top ten from MAGA-linked officials, media and influencers drew more than 49m, and those from Israeli officials, government accounts, media and influencers more than 35m, pushing narratives that tied the riots to migration and radical Islamism. The findings do not show coordination, and Reuters could not verify either report.

3. In Abu Dhabi, Europe will be in the building but not at the table

Europe has won a place in the corridor, not at the table. US, Ukrainian and Russian delegations are due to meet in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday and Wednesday, the first such round in nine months, Al Jazeera notes, with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner for Washington, Rustem Umerov for Kyiv and Vladimir Medinsky for Moscow. France’s foreign minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, said on Sunday that “the Europeans will be well represented”. On Monday Umerov said Kyiv would hold separate coordination meetings with European partners, and the Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said “this is a matter of trilateral negotiations”.

The war did not pause for the diplomats. Ukraine’s air force said Russia launched 317 drones overnight into Monday, and Moscow said it hit four electrical substations; a Ukrainian drone attack started a fire at the KINEF refinery near St Petersburg, the regional governor said.

Chart 3

Who sits where in Abu Dhabi

Delegations named for the round on 10 and 11 November, and the Europeans kept to side meetings

Hover or tap a name for details

United States, mediator

Steve Witkoffspecial envoySteve Witkoff, US special envoyAl Jazeera, 9 November 2026Leads the US side with Jared KushnerJared Kushnerco-leadJared KushnerAl Jazeera, 9 November 2026

Ukraine

Rustem Umerovlead negotiatorRustem UmerovAl Jazeera, 9 November 2026; Rustem Umerov, via UNN, 9 November 2026“We will hold separate coordination meetings with our European partners”Kyrylo Budanovhead of the Presidential OfficeKyrylo BudanovAl Jazeera, 9 November 2026; RBC-Ukraine, 8 November 2026David Arakhamiaruling party’s parliamentary leaderDavid ArakhamiaAl Jazeera, 9 November 2026Head of Zelensky’s parliamentary groupSergiy Kyslytsyafirst deputy head, Presidential OfficeSergiy KyslytsyaAl Jazeera, 9 November 2026

Abu DhabiTue 10 and Wed 11 Nov
trilateral format

Russia

Vladimir Medinskyhead of delegationVladimir MedinskyAl Jazeera, 9 November 2026A former culture ministerMikhail GaluzindiplomatMikhail GaluzinAl Jazeera, 9 November 2026Igor Kostyukovmilitary intelligence chiefIgor KostyukovAl Jazeera, 9 November 2026 (“spy chief”)Yuri Zhygarlovskyarmy generalYuri ZhygarlovskyAl Jazeera, 9 November 2026RBC-Ukraine also lists deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov

In the building, not in the room

France“France will be in Abu Dhabi to take part in these discussions”Jean-Noël Barrot, via RBC-Ukraine (Reuters), 8 November 2026He did not say who would represent FranceUnited KingdomPart of the E4 group in Kyiv’s side meetingsRustem Umerov, via UNN, 9 November 2026GermanyPart of the E4 group in Kyiv’s side meetingsRustem Umerov, via UNN, 9 November 2026ItalyPart of the E4 group in Kyiv’s side meetingsRustem Umerov, via UNN, 9 November 2026An EU official told AFP the bloc, NATO, France, Germany and the UK would be on siteNATOOn site, but its role unclearAn EU official to AFP, via Al Jazeera, 9 November 2026European CommissionOn site for coordination with KyivRustem Umerov, via UNN, 9 November 2026; Al Jazeera

Peskov: “the Americans have their own channels of communication with the Europeans”.

Overnight into Mon317 droneslaunched by Russia, Ukraine’s air force saysIncluding 105 jet-powered dronesNational Herald (agency reports), 9 November 2026Russia said it hit four substations in the Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy and Vinnytsia regions

Tue 10 to Wed 11 NovAbu Dhabi roundsecurity guarantees on the agendaPossible technical dealsAl Jazeera, 9 November 2026Grain, a Black Sea ceasefire, an energy ceasefire and another prisoner exchange, according to the analyst Olexiy Haran

18 to 19 NovShenzhenTrump expects to meet Putin and Xi together“One of the meetings, I think, will be with President Putin and President Xi”Donald Trump to reporters, 8 November 2026 (Reuters via Yahoo)APEC leaders’ summit; no confirmation from Moscow or Beijing in that report

Delegations as listed by Al Jazeera on 9 November; names can change before the talks open.

4. China’s factory prices hit 5.7% while shoppers stall, as oil hands back its war premium

China’s oil shock is landing on factories, not on shoppers. Producer prices rose 5.7% on a year earlier in October, the fastest since June 2022 and above the 5.3% consensus, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday. Consumer prices rose just 0.7%, below the 0.8% expected, with food 2.9% cheaper and fresh vegetables down 16.9%. The gap between the two has widened to five points, from three in July and August.

On the month, factory-gate prices rose 0.7%, and six energy and chemical industries, led by refined oil products and organic chemicals (both up 6.8%) and oil and gas extraction (6%), supplied more than 80% of the rise.

5. The Pope gives Argentina a holiday, and its bonds a week to forget

Argentina’s borrowing cost has become a bet on American politics. JPMorgan’s country-risk index, the premium Argentina pays over US Treasuries to borrow in dollars, rose from 787 basis points on 30 October to 939 on 6 November, its highest in a year and more than double its low of 402 on 10 July. Analysts cited the US midterms, which could leave the Trump administration less room to help Javier Milei, as well as Brazil’s election result, worries about Argentina’s finances and the 2027 presidential vote.

Pope Leo XIV, the first pope to visit Argentina since John Paul II in 1987, arrived in Buenos Aires on Sunday, where Milei met him at the airport; a national holiday declared for the visit shut local markets on Monday. Democrats have filed bills in both chambers of Congress to suspend the $20bn swap line the US Treasury agreed with Argentina’s central bank in October 2025, the Buenos Aires Herald reports.

6. Hasina asks for a passport home, and Dhaka answers that extradition is the way back

Sheikh Hasina says she wants to come home to face the court that sentenced her to death. Lawyers at London’s Matrix Chambers have asked Bangladesh’s mission in New Delhi for a new passport and national identity card for the ousted prime minister, saying her documents were reportedly revoked, according to a letter seen by Reuters. She told Reuters she would return to surrender before a court, a December return she first announced in July; her aides say a date will follow once formalities are done.

A war-crimes tribunal sentenced her to death in absentia in November 2025 for ordering the crackdown on the 2024 student uprising, in which up to 1,400 people may have been killed, according to UN estimates; she denies the charges, and her Awami League is banned. Dhaka’s answer was blunt. “Is she coming to visit her in-laws’ home in Rangpur that we need to give her a passport?” Humaiun Kobir, state minister for foreign affairs, was quoted by The Daily Star as saying, adding that the extradition treaty with India made one unnecessary. India has acknowledged Dhaka’s extradition request but has not agreed to hand her over.

Tuesday and the days ahead

Chart 7

Tuesday 10 to Friday 13 November

Key dates. Times are Paris time (CET); New York is six hours behind

Hover or tap an event for details

Paris timeEventWhy it matters

Tue 04:00China: October tradeConsensus surplus $125.8bn (story 4)Tuesday 10 November, 03:00 GMTTrading Economics, accessed 9 November 2026After $133.53bn in September

Tue 14:30US: October consumer pricesWith October real earningsTuesday 10 November, 08:30 New YorkBLS release schedule, November 2026

Tue to WedTrilateral talks in Abu DhabiEuropeans in side meetings (story 3)10 and 11 NovemberAl Jazeera, 9 November 2026; Rustem Umerov, via UNN, 9 November 2026

WedVeterans Day in the US, Armistice Day in FranceNo BLS releases; US federal holidayWednesday 11 NovemberBLS release schedule, November 2026

Wed to ThuCOP31 Leaders’ Summit, AntalyaOpened by President Erdoğan11 and 12 NovemberUNFCCC, COP31 high-level pageA resumed high-level segment follows on 17 and 18 November

ThuEuropean Political Community summit, DublinLeaders of 50+ countries (story 2)Thursday 12 NovemberIreland.ie, EPC 2026 page

Thu 08:00UK: first estimate of third-quarter GDPWith the monthly estimate for SeptemberThursday 12 November, 07:00 LondonONS release calendar (confirmed)

Fri 14:30US: October producer pricesFactory-gate inflation, after China’s 5.7%Friday 13 November, 08:30 New YorkBLS release schedule, November 2026

LaterAPEC leaders in Shenzhen, 18 and 19 NovemberAlso: Nvidia results (17 Nov), House briefing request (18 Nov)APEC leaders’ summit, ShenzhenReuters via Yahoo, 9 November 2026Trump expects a meeting with Putin and Xi there

Dates checked against the publishers’ calendars on Monday 9 November; schedules can change.

Markets

Market note

Monday 9 November: levels at the times shown

Hover or tap a figure for details

Brent, 9 Nov pm$94.09-4.3%Brent: about $94, lowest since 31 AugustTrading Economics, 9 November 2026 (afternoon quote)From a $98.32 settlement on Friday; down 13.3% the previous week

WTI, Dec, 10:45 NY$87.96-3.16%WTI December futures: $87.96, down 2.87Yahoo Finance live coverage and quotes, 9 November 2026 (quote at about 10:45 New York)

S&P 500, midday NY7,535+2.15%S&P 500: about 7,535, up 158.60Trading Economics quote, Monday 9 November 2026 (around midday New York)Yahoo Finance live coverage put the gain at about 2.1%. After a 2.7% weekly fall (AP)

Dow, 12:09 NY52,311+2.00%Dow: 52,311.38, up 1,025.65Yahoo Finance live coverage and quotes, 9 November 2026 (12:09 New York)

Nikkei 225, close58,775.50+2.3%Nikkei 225 closing levelAP via BNN Bloomberg, 9 November 2026Hang Seng down 0.1%, Kospi down 0.8%

Ten-year, 10:45 NY4.87%+0.7 bpUS ten-year Treasury yield: 4.866%Yahoo Finance live coverage and quotes, 9 November 2026

Gold, 10:45 NY$4,129.70+1.34%Gold: $4,129.70, up 54.80Yahoo Finance live coverage and quotes, 9 November 2026

Nvidia, 12:09 NY$177.31-5.00%Nvidia: $177.31, down 9.34Yahoo Finance live coverage and quotes, 9 November 2026 (12:09 New York)After its board announced an investigation involving chief executive Jensen Huang, covered in a separate Le Détroit article

All levels are from Monday 9 November. US levels are intraday quotes from Monday morning and midday in New York, not closes: Wall Street closes at 22:00 Paris and ICE Brent settles at 20:30 Paris, both after this edition was verified, so Brent is an afternoon quote. No European index close could be confirmed from an exchange or a wire tonight, so none is shown. The Nikkei level is Monday’s close.