Wednesday 11 November

1. Iran’s war reaches France’s freezer aisles, and Canada puts Iran’s banks back on its list

The West’s quarrel with Tehran now has a front line in the supermarket. On Monday, on the sidelines of the G7 foreign ministers’ meeting in Paris, Jean-Noël Barrot said Iran’s Revolutionary Guards were responsible for the cyberattack that hit French supermarkets on 11 and 12 October, summoned Iran’s ambassador and promised European sanctions against those responsible. Paris prosecutors have opened a judicial investigation and requested international arrest warrants for the head of Shahid Kaveh, an offensive cyber unit of the Guards, and his two deputies. AFP put the number of stores hit at about 700, though other tallies run higher: the attackers took over refrigeration controllers through their web interfaces and pushed temperatures as high as 50°C.

The next day, at the same meeting, Canada reimposed sanctions on 11 Iranian entities it had delisted in 2016 under the nuclear deal, among them the National Iranian Oil Company, the National Iranian Tanker Company, Bank Melli and Bank Mellat. Ottawa cited Iran’s repeated failure to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Le Détroit’s reading: Canada’s list reads like the plumbing of Iran’s oil economy: the producer, its tankers and trading names, four banks and an insurer. France’s case gives the EU something it has rarely had, a sabotage file on its own soil, just as the bloc’s foreign ministers prepare to meet on 16 November, where Kaja Kallas says the attack will be discussed.

2. Prosecutors seek to detain Orbán’s brother, as Hungary’s anti-graft drive reaches the family

Hungary’s investigations into the Orbán years have reached the former prime minister’s family. On Tuesday Budapest prosecutors asked for pre-trial detention of Áron Orbán, Viktor Orbán’s 49-year-old younger brother, and three others detained on Monday, saying they might otherwise hinder the evidence. All four are suspected of human smuggling for financial gain, committed in a criminal conspiracy: in 2024, investigators say, they helped more than 100 Vietnamese citizens obtain Hungarian visas for training courses most never attended, then travel on to Western Europe, splitting a “recruitment fee” charged per applicant.

“I am the target, my younger brother is just a tool,” Viktor Orbán wrote on Facebook. His brother’s lawyer said he had offered weeks ago to appear when summoned; none of the four has been convicted. Police run the smuggling case; the anti-graft National Asset Recovery and Protection Office (NVVH), created by Péter Magyar, who ended Orbán’s 16 years in power in April, handles an influence-peddling strand. Two former Orbán ministers and the former central bank chief, György Matolcsy, are already under arrest on separate graft accusations.

Le Détroit’s reading: this is a visa case before it is a family one. Schengen entry sold through a member state’s consulates is the kind of door AML and border teams worry about, and in September the NVVH listed “selling political connections to obtain residence permits for employment” among its first four cases. The investigating judge’s ruling, which prosecutors expect on Wednesday, will test whether this strand of Magyar’s anti-graft drive, which he calls “Operation Purgatory”, holds up in court or looks like the revenge Orbán alleges.

3. US inflation runs hot for a third month, and markets bet on a December rate rise

America’s oil shock has seeped into everything else. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, against 0.3% expected, the third straight month of 0.4% or more, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday; core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.3%, against 0.2% forecast. Shelter supplied more than 30% of the rise, food climbed 0.5%, gasoline 1% and motor insurance 0.7%.

The report carries no annual rate: the 2025 government shutdown meant no prices were collected in October 2025. The last reading was 3.7% in September. Traders did not wait for one. Fed funds futures moved to a 100% chance of a rate rise at the Federal Reserve’s 8 and 9 December meeting, from about 85% before the data, and the two-year Treasury yield jumped 15 basis points to 4.69%. Governor Christopher Waller had said a half-point move was possible if core prices rose 0.3% or more.

Le Détroit’s reading: with no year-on-year figure, the monthly numbers carry the argument, and they show the oil shock seeping beyond the pump into insurance, leisure and furniture, where tariffs also bite. China’s figures, out the same day, point the other way: its October trade surplus shrank to $105.3bn from $133.5bn, as imports jumped 41.6%, helped by Gulf crude flowing again.

4. Indonesia’s vice-president offers to quit, and Prabowo may soon pick his own deputy

The most awkward partnership in Indonesian politics may be ending. Vice-President Gibran Rakabuming Raka, 39, the son of former president Joko Widodo, told President Prabowo Subianto on Tuesday that he intended to resign, the state secretary, Prasetyo Hadi, said after a meeting of about two and a half hours; Prabowo did not reject the request and advised him to keep defending his academic documents in court. Last month the Supreme Court ruled that documents on his overseas education did not meet the requirements for the 2024 election, and some lawmakers have called for his impeachment. “I do not want the current situation to become a prolonged political controversy,” Gibran said.

No written resignation had been confirmed on Tuesday. If one comes, the coordinating minister for legal affairs, Yusril Ihza Mahendra, explained, the letter goes to the People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR), which asks the president for two candidates and must vote within 60 days of receiving his letter.

Le Détroit’s reading: Gibran on the ticket was the price of Widodo’s support in 2024; his exit would let Prabowo choose a deputy who owes nothing to his predecessor, at a time when AP describes a widening rift between the two camps. Separately, police generals including Prabowo’s chief of staff are alleged to have been involved in wiretapping the president; AP says the resignation offer appears unrelated.

5. Exxon takes a first step back into Venezuela, with a $1.6bn award still unsettled

Nearly two decades after Hugo Chávez’s government took its assets, ExxonMobil has signed its way back to the door. The company said on Monday it had signed a non-binding memorandum with the state oil company, PDVSA, to evaluate upstream opportunities, without naming any project. “This memorandum is a meaningful first step,” Exxon said, adding that any investment would need stable policies and clear rules. “We welcome you back,” the interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, said at the signing.

The road back runs through an old dispute. Before the expropriation, Exxon held 41.67% of the Cerro Negro heavy-crude project and half of La Ceiba; its affiliates filed for arbitration in 2007 and in 2014 the arbitration body ICSID awarded them $1.6bn plus interest, an award Venezuela has challenged and that remains unresolved. A joint venture or production-sharing contract would be needed before Exxon pumps a barrel.

Le Détroit’s reading: a memorandum costs nothing; the price will show in how the old award is treated and what protections Exxon wins. Since US forces removed Nicolás Maduro in January, Washington has wanted American companies at the front of Venezuela’s oil reopening. The return of the company that fought Caracas longest would be its strongest signal yet, but on paper Exxon has committed nothing.

6. Brazil hands COP31 a map out of fossil fuels, as leaders gather in Antalya

The climate talks finally have a route map for the promise they keep making. On Tuesday, the second day of COP31 in Antalya, Brazil presented a roadmap for moving away from coal, oil and gas, a transition pledged at past talks with little guidance on how. Its key actions include halting new fossil fuel power plants and cutting fossil fuel subsidies; further roadmaps on deforestation and on delivering $1.3 trillion in climate finance for poorer countries are due during the conference. “What we want is to be very pragmatic, helping countries move forward,” said Ana Toni, chief executive of last year’s COP30.

Turkey, the host, wants electricity, preferably renewable, to supply 35% of the world’s energy use by 2035, from 23% today. President Erdoğan and António Guterres are due to open the leaders’ summit on Wednesday; the United States is absent for a second year.

Le Détroit’s reading: the map’s weak point is its author. Brazil is a major oil exporter, and Toni declined to discuss its exports; a plan built on demand lets producers sign up without pumping less, which is why Colombia’s former environment minister, Irene Vélez Torres, wants roadmaps on supply as well. A day earlier, ExxonMobil had signed its way back towards Venezuela’s oil.

Wednesday and the days ahead

Chart 7

Wednesday 11 to Friday 13 November, and beyond

Key dates. Times are Paris time (CET); New York is six hours behind

Hover or tap an event for details

Paris timeEventWhy it matters

WedArmistice Day in France, Veterans Day in the US, Singles’ Day in ChinaNo BLS releases; a US federal holidayWednesday 11 NovemberBLS release schedule, November 2026 (Veterans Day)Singles’ Day is China’s annual 11 November shopping festival

WedAbu Dhabi talks, second scheduled dayKushner says recent contacts narrowed the gapsUS-brokered talks, 10 and 11 NovemberAl Jazeera, 9 November 2026; Reuters via Just Security, 10 November 2026First such talks since February (written on Tuesday evening, may change)

Wed to ThuCOP31 Leaders’ Summit, AntalyaErdoğan and Guterres open it (story 6)11 and 12 NovemberUNFCCC, Antalya Leaders’ Summit pageResumed high-level segment on 17 and 18 November

WedBudapest: ruling on detention for Áron OrbánExpected on Wednesday, per HVG and Daily News Hungary; no official date (story 2)Prosecutors asked for pre-trial detention on 10 NovemberIndex.hu, 10 November 2026, 16:59; Portfolio.huDaily News Hungary expects a hearing on 11 November (written on Tuesday evening, may change)

Thu 08:00UK: GDP monthly estimate for SeptemberWith trade and services dataThursday 12 November, 07:00 LondonONS release calendar (confirmed)

ThuEuropean Political Community summit, DublinLeaders of more than 50 countriesThursday 12 NovemberIreland.ie, EPC 2026 page

Fri 14:30US: October producer pricesAfter a hot consumer price report (story 3)Friday 13 November, 08:30 New YorkBLS release schedule, November 2026

LaterEU Foreign Affairs Council, 16 Nov; Fed decision, 8 to 9 DecThe fridge hack (story 1); the rate rise (story 3)Brussels, 16 November; Washington, 8 and 9 DecemberCouncil of the EU meeting page; Federal Reserve FOMC calendar

Dates checked against the publishers’ calendars on Tuesday 10 November; schedules can change.

Markets

Market note

Tuesday 10 November: European closes, US levels at the times shown

Hover or tap a figure for details

STOXX 600, close658.32+0.27%STOXX 600 at the closeTrading Economics, 10 November 2026 (market table); Investing.com, 10 November 2026 (+0.3%)Europe shrugged off the hot US price data as oil fell

CAC 40, close8,279+0.6%CAC 40: highest close since 8 SeptemberTrading Economics, 10 November 2026; Investing.com, 10 November 2026Banks and defence led; TotalEnergies fell with oil

DAX, close26,347+0.31%DAX at the Xetra close: 26,347.45, up 0.31%dpa-AFX via ARIVA.DE, 10 November 2026, 18:11About 1.3% below the record of 26,692 set on Thursday 5 November. Trading Economics showed a higher, CFD-based level

S&P 500, ~13:00 NY7,478.60-0.94%S&P 500 around midday in New YorkTrading Economics, 10 November 2026 (quote read at about 13:00 New York)Not a close: Wall Street closes at 22:00 Paris, after this edition was verified

Dow, ~13:00 NY52,065.20-0.62%Dow Jones around midday in New YorkTrading Economics, 10 November 2026 (quote read at about 13:00 New York)Not a close

Two-year, 15:31 Paris4.69%+15 bpUS two-year Treasury yield minutes after the CPI dataReuters via AOL, 10 November 2026, 14:31 UTC (15:31 Paris)

Ten-year, 15:31 Paris4.96%+9 bpUS ten-year Treasury yield minutes after the CPI dataReuters via AOL, 10 November 2026, 14:31 UTC (15:31 Paris)Trading Economics put it around 5.0% later in the session

Gold, 15:31 Paris$4,057-2%Gold minutes after the CPI dataReuters via AOL, 10 November 2026, 14:31 UTC (15:31 Paris)Dollar index +0.3% to 102.01 at the same time

European levels are Tuesday’s closes. US levels are intraday, at the times shown, not closes: Wall Street closes at 22:00 Paris, after this edition was verified. Brent is not shown: quotes for Tuesday conflicted, between about $89 and $92 a barrel, and none could be pinned to a settlement; sources agree it was at its lowest since late August or early September. The FTSE 100 is left out because sources disagreed on its close (down 0.1% or 0.3%).