Mecca Alliance Activated: Turkey and Pakistan to Send Troops to Saudi Arabia

What happened

Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan agreed on Monday to activate the collective deterrence measures of the Mecca Alliance, the mutual defence pact the three countries signed on 7 August. Meeting in emergency session in Riyadh, the alliance's strategic political and defence committee decided to "provide the agreed military forces and capabilities and ensure their rapid deployment" to the kingdom, according to Pakistan's foreign ministry. The talks brought together Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan.

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Saudi Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman said the members had agreed to trigger the alliance in response "to the attacks and all those responsible for them". The three countries discussed recent attacks on Saudi Arabia, including incidents targeting the holy cities of Mecca and Medina, but their joint statement did not name the Houthis. It gave no troop numbers and did not say what the Turkish and Pakistani forces would do on arrival.

A pact under pressure

The activation follows weeks of doubts. After waves of Houthi attacks in September, Ankara and Islamabad said they had not received any Saudi request for help, and on 10 September Pakistan said it was not considering an immediate military response. On 25 September, the three countries' military chiefs met in Riyadh and pledged to "immediately translate" their commitments into military cooperation. The Houthis have warned Turkey and Pakistan that they would face an "iron fist" if they entered the war.

On the ground, the Saudi-backed Yemeni government has launched a counteroffensive, dubbed "Dawn of Yemen", to push the Houthis back from territory they captured last month. Its spokesman said government forces had "succeeded in controlling Bab al-Mandeb" and retaken the road between Dhubab and the port town of Mocha. The Saudi-led coalition said it hit 324 targets with 100 aircraft at the start of the operation.

The economic stakes: Saudi Arabia's last open door

The Red Sea has become Saudi Arabia's main oil route. With traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely constrained by the Iran war, Riyadh has shifted its exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, via its East-West pipeline, which can carry 7 million barrels a day. Yanbu was shipping about 4 million barrels a day by July, against fewer than 1 million a year earlier.
Every Asian-bound barrel must pass Bab al-Mandeb. Petroleum flows through the strait reached 7.4 million barrels a day in June, about 7% of world supply, against 4.2 million a year earlier, according to Kpler. The Houthis declared a blockade of Saudi shipping on 20 July.
Exports have already fallen. Saudi Arabia exported just 3.2 million barrels a day in August, its lowest level in more than a decade, according to Kpler. Drone attacks shut the East-West pipeline in September, before it restarted on 22 September; on Monday, there were conflicting reports of a fresh strike on the line.
Insurance is soaring. War-risk premiums for Saudi-linked tankers calling at Yanbu tripled to about 3% of a vessel's value, against under 1% in early July, adding about $3 million per voyage, according to Reuters. Some European customers were told they would receive no Saudi crude in October.
Oil is swinging. Brent rose to $103 early on Monday after the Houthis claimed missile and drone attacks on Saudi Aramco sites in Riyadh and Khurais, then slipped toward $101 after Aramco unexpectedly cut its main price to Asia to its lowest level since 2020. The head of Aramco warned that global stockpiles were "scarily thin".

Why it matters for the Horn of Africa
Bab al-Mandeb separates Yemen from Djibouti and Eritrea. A military escalation in the strait directly affects Djibouti, a logistics hub and host of several foreign military bases, and the shipping routes that serve the whole Horn of Africa.