Oil Sinks Nearly 8% on Iran Peace Hopes, Washington Pitches Russian Gas to Europe and America Votes
1. Oil sinks nearly 8% on Iran peace hopes, then US strikes hit Qeshm
Traders priced in peace on Monday, even though nothing is signed. Brent crude settled at $104.77 a barrel on 2 November, down 7.6%, and US crude fell 7.4% to $96.46. Qatari mediators flew to Tehran on Monday evening to meet Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Iran's president said the government had been given "certain authorities" to negotiate, and Donald Trump said a deal "could happen". Over the weekend, Iran offered through Qatar to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if Washington meets its conditions, including an end to the US naval blockade; no US acceptance has been reported. Then, late on Monday, explosions hit Iran's Qeshm Island, in the strait: US officials told The Wall Street Journal and AP that American forces had carried out limited "defensive strikes" there. Brent rose 0.5% to $105.25 in early Asian trade. "The oil market is still reacting with extreme sensitivity to every headline out of the Middle East," said Giovanni Staunovo of UBS.
| Fri 30 Oct | Mon 2 Nov | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentinternational benchmark | $113.43 | $104.77 | -7.63% |
| WTIUS benchmark | $104.12 | $96.46 | -7.36% |
Intraday lows on Monday: Brent $103.28, WTI $95.15. Before the war about 85 ships a day crossed the strait; IMF PortWatch counted 2 on 25 October.
2. Washington pitches Russian gas to Europe through an American middleman
The Trump administration wants Russian gas back in Europe, with an American company in the middle. The special envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff pitched the idea in Moscow and Kyiv in September, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday. Russia would sell gas through a US intermediary, getting around European restrictions, and pay the proceeds into an escrow account in a third country, so that the Kremlin could not spend them on the war. Kyiv would earn transit fees, American investors would profit, and US negotiators believe that the deal would give Vladimir Putin a reason to accept an energy truce. Gas stopped flowing through Ukraine when the transit contract expired at the end of 2024, but the pipelines are intact. Officially, the EU will not resume purchases; privately, one senior European official compared the plan to Neville Chamberlain's sacrifice of Czechoslovakia.
| Party | Under the plan |
|---|---|
| Russiasells gas to Europe again, but the proceeds go into escrow in a third country | Revenue locked |
| Ukraineearns transit fees on gas crossing its territory | Transit fees |
| US investorsprofit from the intermediary role | Margins |
| European Unionofficially refuses to resume purchases | No |
The pipelines through Ukraine are intact, and flows could resume quickly if the plan went ahead, Bloomberg reported.
3. America votes, after a flood of Musk money and a Supreme Court rebuff
Americans finish voting today in the first national test of Donald Trump's second term, with all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships at stake. Money has rarely been so concentrated. Elon Musk has given between about $428 million and $483 million this cycle, mostly to Republican causes, depending on who counts and what, according to tallies compiled by Fortune: more than George Soros has given personally in 47 years of federal records. In May 2025, Musk had promised to do "a lot less" political spending. The courts have had their say too. On Monday the Supreme Court, with no noted dissent, refused the Justice Department's request to make California set aside the mail ballots of about 20,000 people it alleges are non-citizens; a federal judge had called the government's process "rife with uncertainty and errors". Last week, Polymarket gave Democrats a 94% chance of winning the House and 69% for the Senate.
| Count | Amount |
|---|---|
| 2026 cycle, Fortunefederal committees, FEC filings to 14 October | $427.5m |
| 2026 cycle, OpenSecrets and The New York Timesfull cycle | $445.6m |
| 2026 cycle, Brennan Centerincluding his companies | $483m |
| Musk, 2024 cycleOpenSecrets; the largest donor of that cycle | $291.5m |
| George Soros, personal giving47 years of federal records | $243.2m |
In May 2025 Musk said: "I think in terms of political spending, I'm going to do a lot less in the future."
4. Australia raises rates to an 18-year high, and its board splits
Australia's fight against inflation is getting more expensive for borrowers. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by a quarter-point to 4.85% on Tuesday 3 November, its fifth increase this year and the highest level since 2008. The board was divided: six members voted for the rise and three to hold. The RBA now expects inflation to stay above 3% until late 2027, about three quarters later than it previously forecast, and its statement warned of "upside risks to inflation expectations". Governor Michele Bullock gave no promise of more. "Will we need more? I don't know," she said, adding that the last couple of rises "haven't even started to flow through yet". This rise alone adds about A$115 a month for the average borrower, the comparison site Finder estimates; Westpac sees the next increase most likely in February.
| Loan | Per month | Per year |
|---|---|---|
| A$500,000 | +258 | +3,094 |
| A$730,719the average loan | +538 | +6,460 |
| A$1,000,000 | +737 | +8,840 |
The RBA now expects inflation to stay above 3% until late 2027, about three quarters later than it previously forecast.
5. Poland's constitutional court becomes a battlefield
A long legal feud in Warsaw has turned into a standoff over a building. On Friday 30 October, judge Anna Korwin-Piotrowska suspended the president of Poland's Constitutional Tribunal, Bogdan Święczkowski, and his deputy, and took charge of the court, saying their leadership was blocking judges elected by the current parliamentary majority. Riot police guarded the building as protesters gathered; the police say they stayed outside and did not help anyone take it over. President Karol Nawrocki, who disputes the suspensions, cut short a trip to Senegal and said that "a constitutional state body was forcibly taken over". Prime Minister Donald Tusk answered that "a democratic state must be strong and capable of enforcing justice". The European Commission's justice commissioner, Michael McGrath, said the court must work under Poland's constitution and EU case law, citing the Venice Commission's view that choosing judges is a matter for parliament.
| Who | Position |
|---|---|
| President Karol Nawrocki"A constitutional state body was forcibly taken over" | Takeover |
| Prime Minister Donald Tusklawfully elected judges had been obstructed; the court will be independent | Restoring law |
| Warsaw policestayed outside at the request of the prosecutor general and a judge | Outside |
| European Commissionthe court must work under Poland's constitution and EU case law; choosing judges is for parliament (Venice Commission) | Cautious |
The dispute over who may lead the court, and which judges may sit, remains unresolved.
6. The chip rout reaches $3.7 trillion
Intel's collapse last week is turning a month-long slide into a reckoning for the whole sector. Chip and memory stocks have lost about $3.7 trillion of market value since 6 October, Yahoo Finance calculated after Monday's close. Nvidia accounts for the largest share, about $896 billion, followed by TSMC with $435 billion, AMD with $298 billion and Intel with $279 billion. Intel fell another 8.8% on Monday 2 November, to $59.97, leaving it worth less than half its value at the end of September. Memory and storage makers were hit hard: Seagate lost 7.5% and Sandisk 6.5%. The Nasdaq dropped 1.1% to 25,164 and the S&P 500 0.5% to 7,541, while the Dow rose 0.4% to 51,984.
| Company | Value lost |
|---|---|
| Nvidiadown about 16% since 6 October | $896bn |
| TSMC | $435bn |
| AMD | $298bn |
| Intelworth less than half its end-September value | $279bn |
| Rest of the sectorLe Détroit calculation | ~$1.8tn |
On Monday the S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 7,541.40 and the Nasdaq 1.1% to 25,164.32; the Dow rose 0.4% to 51,983.98.
Tuesday and the week ahead
| Paris time | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| 04:30 |  Reserve Bank of Australia decision | Done: a rise to 4.85%, by six votes to three (story 4) |
| Morning |  Swiss consumer prices, October | The SNB sees inflation averaging 1.2% in the fourth quarter |
| During the day |  Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal judges meet on the court’s budget | A first test of who controls the court (story 5) |
| 16:00 |  US job openings (JOLTS) and factory orders, September | Labour-market signals before Friday’s payrolls |
| 00:00 | First US polls close, in Indiana and Kentucky | Results through the night; close Senate races may take days (story 3) |
Monday 2 November, US close: the S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 7,541 and the Nasdaq 1.1% to 25,164, while the Dow rose 0.4% to 51,984; Brent settled at $104.77, down 7.6% (Yahoo Finance, Nation Thailand).
October flash estimate, after 3.8% in September. 
The Riksbank is expected to raise its rate to 2.00%. ISM services, consensus 54.7
A 25-basis-point rise to 4.0% is widely expected. 
Norges Bank is expected to hold at 4.50%October payrolls: consensus about 55,000 jobs, unemployment 4.2%On Wednesday the US Treasury publishes its quarterly refunding; in August it estimated fourth-quarter borrowing at $628bn, a figure it was due to revise on Monday.