Thursday 12 November

1. Iran says mines now police its Hormuz lanes, and the oil washes up in Oman

The quarrel over who may use which lane through Hormuz is now settled with explosions. On Wednesday Iran’s army said, via state television, that “a violating oil tanker caught fire after striking a naval mine” in an “unsafe, prohibited area” in the east of the strait. A day earlier the Revolutionary Guards said tankers had caught fire on what they called an “unauthorised” route; AFP put their count at three, Iranwire at two, and none of the claims could be independently verified. Also on Wednesday, a Saudi-flagged tanker, the NCC Fajr, was involved in a “possible attack” in the strait, India’s shipping minister said, with all crew safe.

The tally keeps climbing. At least 10 ships were hit in the first ten days of November, after 37 attacks in October, the highest monthly tally since the war began in late February, according to Washington Institute data cited by Reuters; the International Maritime Organization has confirmed 133 incidents and at least 25 seafarers killed. Video verified by Reuters showed oil reaching Omani shores. Brent rebounded about 1% by midday, to around $92.50 a barrel, from two-month lows.

Le Détroit’s reading: Iran treats the southern corridor near the Omani coast as unauthorised, and says the tankers it hits were crossing with US support. The US military says it has cleared the strait of mines; Tehran says otherwise, ship by ship. For insurers and charterers the question is no longer whether Hormuz is open but which lane a policy, and a crew, can accept.

2. A blacklisted, military-linked Chinese university bought Nvidia’s H200s through a local supplier

America’s chip controls have a reseller-shaped hole. Northwestern Polytechnical University, a Xi’an school that researches military aircraft, missiles and satellites, bought two H200 chips for 874,700 yuan ($123,000), according to a 21 October procurement record reviewed by Reuters, from a domestic supplier, Shaanxi Bosuan Network Technology, not from Nvidia. The university has been on the US Entity List since 2001 over alleged missile proliferation, and since 2019 licence requests for it have faced a policy of denial. Its cybersecurity school also rented servers with eight H200s each under two contracts awarded in January.

Reuters reviewed 26 procurement and corporate records showing Chinese universities obtaining restricted chips or computing access through local suppliers, including Beihang University, another of the “Seven Sons of National Defense”, which bought four A800s, a chip barred from export to all Chinese entities. Washington has allowed some H200 sales to China case by case since January, but not to listed entities. Nvidia, the Commerce Department and the university did not respond to Reuters.

Le Détroit’s reading: the sums are small, about 437,350 yuan a chip by our arithmetic, and that is the point. Export controls police licences and shipments; this trade surfaced as a domestic invoice inside China, in a public procurement record. For banks and distributors the warning signs are those of sanctions evasion: an intermediary between the maker and a listed end-user. Three Republican committee chairmen have asked Jensen Huang for a briefing on 18 November.

3. Washington handled $12bn of Venezuela’s oil money, but cannot say who ended up with the dollars

The United States now runs Venezuela’s till, though not its last mile. A confidential KPMG report compiled for the US government, reported by The New York Times on Tuesday evening, shows $12.26bn flowed into the “Venezuela Custody Account” between 3 January and the end of September from the country’s oil and other natural resource exports. The Treasury set up the account after Nicolás Maduro’s removal; it was first held in Qatar and moved to Citibank in New York in late January. Venezuela’s central bank requests funds, and State Department and Treasury officials sign off each transaction.

Almost all of it went straight back. About $11.7bn propped up the bolívar through foreign-currency auctions run by commercial banks, about $130m paid foreign debts and some $170m was left on 30 September. Trafigura and Vitol supplied 61% of deposits. The report does not identify who ultimately bought the dollars at auction; earlier Times reporting suggested a large share went to a small group of agribusiness and consumer firms. The Treasury, the State Department, KPMG and Caracas did not immediately comment.

Le Détroit’s reading: the controls sit at the top of the chain, where each withdrawal is vetted; at the bottom, once dollars reach an auction, the beneficiary drops out of the record. In a country where Marco Rubio says most oil revenue was once lost to corruption and middlemen, that is the gap a compliance officer would ask about first. Democrats, who gain oversight powers in Congress in January, have pushed for more transparency.

4. Abu Dhabi ends with a prisoner swap, and Trump’s envoys carry the rest to Moscow

Two days of US-brokered talks produced the one deal the two sides keep managing to strike. Russia and Ukraine agreed on Wednesday to a large-scale prisoner exchange, the only concrete result of their first direct talks since February. “The main result is that we managed to reach an agreement on a large-scale prisoner exchange,” said Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s negotiator; Jared Kushner said the numbers would be settled on Thursday. Volodymyr Zelensky had said the sides discussed 1,000 or 1,500 prisoners each, and TASS said the swap should happen within two to three weeks.

On the war itself, nothing moved. Russia still demands that Ukraine leave the parts of Donbas it holds and rejects an immediate ceasefire; Kushner called territory the hardest issue but said there was “progress” on a post-war security framework. Kushner and Steve Witkoff are due in Moscow on Thursday to brief Vladimir Putin, then in Dublin to meet Zelensky, who is there for this week’s European summits.

Le Détroit’s reading: prisoner exchanges are the channel that works, and one above 1,000 a side would be the largest of the war. But they mark the talks’ floor, not their direction. Ukraine’s David Arakhamia says a broader format, with Europe, is nearly achieved; Russia’s Vladimir Medinsky says of the Europeans, “We don’t really understand in what capacity they are here”. With the envoys passing through Dublin, Europe’s leaders get one more chance to make their case for a seat.

5. Najib goes home to serve his sentence, and Anwar’s coalition starts to crack

Malaysia’s most famous convict has swapped his cell for his house, and cost the government a minister. Najib Razak arrived at his Kuala Lumpur home at about 21:27 local time on Tuesday to serve the rest of his reduced six-year sentence in the SRC International case under house arrest until 23 August 2028, after the High Court clarified its order. A separate 15-year sentence, from his December 2025 conviction for abuse of power and money laundering in a 1MDB trial, is due to begin when the house arrest ends; he is appealing it. The King had ruled that the conditional pardon of 18 September must be implemented. Transport minister Anthony Loke, secretary-general of the DAP, resigned the same day.

The fight then moved inside the coalition. Barisan Nasional’s chairman, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, pushed Anwar Ibrahim to dissolve parliament and call an early election rather than reshuffle; at a rally on Tuesday night Loke told Zahid’s camp to leave the government if it disagreed. On Wednesday Anwar, without naming Najib, wrote that “those who commit corruption belong in prison”. Melaka elects its 28-seat state assembly on Saturday.

Le Détroit’s reading: Najib was convicted over RM42m of SRC International funds; he will now serve that sentence at home. In Budapest on Wednesday, a court ordered Áron Orbán, brother of Hungary’s former prime minister, held for a month in a people-smuggling case; he is presumed innocent, and Viktor Orbán says he himself is the real target. In Hungary, investigators are now reaching the former ruling family’s circle, while Malaysia’s reform coalition is splitting over how one of its biggest corruption cases ends.

6. Europe closes at a record on the AI rebound, as rate rises loom on both sides of the Atlantic

Equity investors chose earnings over interest rates. The STOXX 600 closed at a record 663.05 on Wednesday, up 0.72%, and Germany’s DAX rose 1.2%, led by Siemens Energy, up 10.8% after it raised its 2027 margin expectations and planned to more than triple its dividend. Chip stocks followed CoreWeave’s upbeat outlook: Soitec gained 11.9% and Aixtron 8%. Defence lagged after CSG fell 21.6% on a cut to its margin forecast.

The backdrop is tightening. After Tuesday’s hot US inflation report, traders expect the Fed to raise rates again in December, and they price at least one quarter-point rise by the ECB by February. US bond markets were shut for Veterans Day, so Treasuries did not trade, while Wall Street rose on technology stocks: the S&P 500 closed 1.3% higher and the Nasdaq 1.6%.

Le Détroit’s reading: a record on the eve of rate rises says investors think AI and grid spending can outrun the cost of money. The leaders make physical things: turbines, switchgear, chip-making tools. Thursday’s UK growth figures and Friday’s US producer prices are the next test of that bet.

Thursday and the days ahead

Chart 7

Thursday 12 to Monday 16 November, and beyond

Key dates. Times are Paris time (CET); New York is six hours behind

Hover or tap an event for details

Paris timeEventWhy it matters

ThuKushner and Witkoff in Moscow; swap numbers dueAfter the Abu Dhabi talks (story 4)Thursday 12 NovemberEuronews, 11 November 2026; Al Jazeera, 11 November 2026Written on Wednesday evening, may change

ThuEuropean Political Community summit, DublinOver 50 leaders; the US envoys due to meet Zelensky in DublinThursday 12 NovemberIreland.ie, EPC 2026 pageKyiv Independent reports an informal EU leaders’ meeting on 13 November

Thu 08:00UK: GDP monthly estimate for SeptemberWith trade and services data (story 6)Thursday 12 November, 07:00 LondonONS release calendar (confirmed)

ThuCOP31 Leaders’ Summit, second day, AntalyaOn Wednesday Guterres told leaders the climate crisis is “outrunning us”11 and 12 NovemberUNFCCC, Antalya Leaders’ Summit pageGuterres quote: Reuters, via Just Security, 11 November 2026. Resumed high-level segment on 17 and 18 November

Fri 14:30US: October producer pricesAfter a hot consumer price report (story 6)Friday 13 November, 08:30 New YorkBLS release schedule, November 2026

SatMelaka state election, MalaysiaFirst vote since Najib went home (story 5)Saturday 14 November; 28 seatsThe Star, Melaka State Polls 2026 page

MonEU Foreign Affairs Council, BrusselsAgenda not yet published on WednesdayMonday 16 NovemberCouncil of the EU meeting pageAgenda highlights are posted a week before the meeting

LaterHuang briefing request, 18 Nov; Fed decision, 8 to 9 DecThe chip trail (story 2); the rate path (story 6)Washington, 18 November; 8 and 9 DecemberReuters via BNN Bloomberg, 11 November 2026, 08:45 New York; Federal Reserve FOMC calendarWritten on Wednesday evening, may change

Dates checked against the publishers’ calendars on Wednesday 11 November; schedules can change.

Markets

Market note

Wednesday 11 November: European and US stock closes; oil at the time shown

Hover or tap a figure for details

STOXX 600, close663.05+0.72%STOXX 600: a record closeReuters via AOL, 11 November 2026, updated 17:52 UTCJust below the intraday record of 663.41. Siemens Energy and tech led

DAX, close26,663+1.20%DAX at the Xetra close: 26,662.77, up 315.32 pointsdpa-AFX via finanzen.at, 11 November 2026, 18:07 Paris; Dow Jones via MarketScreener (German edition), 17:50 ParisReuters: up 1.2% and near an all-time high (Reuters via AOL, 11 November 2026, updated 17:52 UTC). investingLive gave 26,642.06, up 1.12%

CAC 40, close8,333+0.66%CAC 40 at the close: 8,332.88, up 54.29 pointsinvestingLive, European stocks close higher, 11 November 2026, 16:58 GMTSame gain, 54.28 points or 0.66%, in Panthere Group, European markets finish broadly higher, 11 November 2026

FTSE 100, close10,835+0.78%FTSE 100 at the close: 10,835.48, up 83.89 pointsinvestingLive, European stocks close higher, 11 November 2026, 16:58 GMTConfirmed by Panthere Group, European markets finish broadly higher, 11 November 2026: 10,835.47, up 83.88 points

S&P 500, close7,619.38+1.31%S&P 500 at the close, 22:00 ParisMarketScreener quote panel, 11 November 2026, 16:16 New YorkKiplinger: 7,619, up 1.3% at the close (Kiplinger, Stock market today, 11 November 2026 (closing levels))

Nasdaq, close25,466.19+1.60%Nasdaq Composite at the closeMarketScreener quote panel, 11 November 2026, 16:16 New YorkKiplinger: 25,466, up 1.6%. The Dow closed up 0.49% at 52,486.49 (Kiplinger, Stock market today, 11 November 2026 (closing levels))

Brent, midday~$92.5+1.1%Brent crude around midday, rebounding from two-month lows on the Hormuz attacksReuters via KAOK, 11 November 2026; Le Private Banker, 11 November 2026, 12:35 GMTNot a settlement. Tuesday’s settlement: $91.49

US TreasuriesClosedVeterans DayUS bond markets closed for Veterans DaySIFMA holiday scheduleNo Treasury yields were set on Wednesday; the stock market was open

European and US equity levels are Wednesday’s closes. Brent is an intraday level, not a settlement. US bond markets were closed for Veterans Day.