1. Saudi Arabia zeroes Europe's October crude

Bloomberg reported Friday that Aramco has told European refiners under term contracts they will receive no crude next month, after the 10 September drone attack that shut the East-West pipeline to Yanbu. Europe normally takes around 680,000 barrels a day of Saudi crude by that route, which was the kingdom's only overland bypass of Hormuz. The barrels are not gone: Aramco is selling from Ras Tanura inside the Gulf, ship to ship off Oman, mostly to Asia. Riyadh says it aims to restore about half the pipeline's capacity within days; a full return is put at up to six weeks. Brent closed below 105 dollars Thursday, its third daily fall, and Norway's Johan Sverdrup grade, Europe's closest substitute, hit a record premium of 24 dollars over Dated Brent. Watch for a force majeure declaration.

2. Turkey cuts Iran's banking and air links in one week

Saturday's Official Gazette carries the BDDK decision, dated Friday, revoking the licence of Bank Mellat's Istanbul branch after 44 years in Turkey. The legal basis cited is risk to depositors and financial stability; the text does not mention the United States. It follows Ankara's suspension of Mahan Air flights to and from Iran, effective Monday, and a US Treasury package of 8 September against Iran's aviation sector that designated three Turkish service companies. Turkish officials say other Iranian carriers remain under review. Watch what happens to Turkish-Iranian trade finance once its licensed channel is gone.

3. France says it is already retaliating, quietly

A French military source told Le Monde that Paris is carrying out undisclosed conventional responses to Russian hybrid attacks, and that this is already happening. The remark landed a day after Emmanuel Macron gathered party leaders at the Élysée for a closed briefing by the heads of the DGSE, DGSI, DRM and SGDSN, then ordered a plan to protect critical infrastructure and defence-industry sites from drones and cyberattacks. The SGDSN counts roughly 1,500 vital sites and concedes it cannot cover them all. The same day, Switzerland's Federal Council adopted a security strategy that ranks hybrid and remote attacks as the most likely threat. Watch whether the ministry confirms, disowns, or stays silent.

4. Russia votes, Europe braces

Polls close today in Russia's three-day State Duma election, the second national vote since February 2022. The outcome is not in doubt; the timing is what matters to Europe. Donald Tusk told the Sejm on Wednesday that Western and Ukrainian intelligence expect Russia to send drones or missiles into NATO territory and call it an accident, with late autumn and winter as the critical window. Denmark summoned Russia's ambassador last week after a frigate fired flares at a Danish helicopter over the Baltic. Watch Moscow's rhetoric once the count is in.

5. A stealth-jet canopy is missing in Hong Kong

Politico reported Friday that a shipment of F-35 parts sent from Australia for repair in the United States was rerouted across the Pacific and arrived in Hong Kong, a canopy with low-observable materials among them. The Pentagon confirms a shipment issue and says it is trying to recover the parts; Congress has been briefed since June. Nobody has said how it happened, what carried it, or who holds it now. Since 2020, Hong Kong has been a presumption-of-denial destination for US defence articles. Watch whether Commerce or State names a freight intermediary.